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When Should You Trust Your Gut?

When you're making important decisions as a founder — like what to build, or how it should work — should you spend lots of time gathering input from others or just trust your gut?

November 16, 202412:10

Table of Contents

Segment 1

🎙️ Commit or Validate: When to Trust Your Gut

In this episode of Dalton & Michael, the hosts explore a crucial dilemma that startup founders face: when should you trust your gut instinct versus when should you seek validation from others?

The hosts identify two common founder scenarios they encounter at Y Combinator. One involves experienced founders who've already built something valuable and want to turn it into a product. The other involves inexperienced founders who are trying to figure out what to work on.

"This is Dalton plus Michael and today we're going to talk about commit or validate when to trust your gut as a startup founder." - Dalton"

As the hosts point out, general startup advice doesn't apply equally well to these different scenarios - each requires a more tailored approach based on the founder's background and expertise level.

🔄 The Two Extremes

The hosts outline the two extreme approaches that founders sometimes take when deciding whether to trust their instincts.

On one end is the "Steve Jobs approach" - founders who believe they should never talk to customers and instead rely completely on their vision and taste to create revolutionary products that people didn't even know they wanted.

"The extreme comic book version of trusting your gut is you talk to no one. You somehow from having great taste or a great internal idea of what people want, you just manifest it and it's totally unique and different." - Michael"

On the opposite end is what the hosts call "the mom test" approach - founders who assume they know absolutely nothing and must rely entirely on customer feedback to guide every decision, having no opinions of their own.

"The perfect version of not trusting your gut is like the typical investor like I'm just going to hedge. I'm going to invest in a lot of different things and see what works. I can't even commit to one thing." - Dalton"

The hosts note that they sometimes encounter founders who say, "We don't know what to work on so our plan is to talk to people and they'll tell us what to work on," which represents the 0% trust-your-gut approach.

👍 When You Should Trust Your Gut

The hosts argue that founders with relevant expertise should trust their instincts more than they might think.

If you've built something valuable at a company that's still being used even after you've left, or you've developed a successful product in a particular domain, you've likely developed taste and understanding that gives you unique insights others don't have.

"I think we would argue that if you were inside of a company, you built a tool, everyone at the company uses the tool, it's still being used even though you don't work there anymore, you probably know more than you think. And that it's probably okay to trust your gut more than you think." - Michael"

For these founders, Michael suggests a simple approach: "Make something that would impress you." When you have deep expertise in a domain - even if it's something arcane like building compilers - your ability to judge quality and discern what's valuable is a superpower.

"You should just listen to your instincts and just do the thing. You know more than most people, so listen to yourself to get this off the ground." - Dalton"

The hosts note that as advisors, their job with these founders isn't to have opinions but to encourage them to trust their experience: "Would you have liked this? Would you have bought it? Would you have talked to yourself?"

👎 When You Shouldn't Trust Your Gut

The hosts explain that you might want to be more cautious about trusting your instincts when:

  1. You don't have many strong opinions about what to work on
  2. Your opinions are mainstream or similar to the "50th percentile" of other people
  3. You've never gone deep on any particular topic
  4. You haven't had many relevant experiences

"One way to self-diagnose that maybe your gut intuition may not be dead on is where you find that you don't have a lot of opinions about what to work on, or that your opinions are very similar to the 50th percentile of other people." - Michael"

In these situations, the hosts suggest a different mentality: part of starting your company will be about building expertise, not bringing it. They recommend:

  1. Starting in a general idea area that interests you
  2. Not over-complicating your initial plan
  3. Giving yourself the opportunity to learn and figure things out

"If you don't over-hamper yourself with a complicated plan, you give yourself opportunity to build, to figure something out." - Dalton"

The hosts emphasize they're not saying one path (having expertise vs. building it) is better than the other - they're just encouraging founders to be self-aware about which category they fall into and implement a plan accordingly.

🏠 The Real Estate Software Example

To illustrate their points, the hosts walk through a concrete example: two different founding teams both wanting to create a real estate software company focused on mortgage underwriting.

Example #1: The Experienced Team

In the first scenario, one founder has 10 years of experience as a real estate agent, or one founder worked at a mortgage underwriting company for a decade and built software for that industry.

This team likely has:

  • Deep industry knowledge
  • Experience with existing products and their limitations
  • Understanding of what mortgage underwriters actually want
  • Firsthand experience with the problems they're solving

"Your judgment about knowing what mortgage underwriters want, if you've been building software inside of a mortgage underwriting company for 10 years, is probably pretty good." - Michael"

For this team, trusting their gut about what to build makes sense because they're speaking from experience.

Example #2: The Inexperienced Team

In the second scenario, the founders have no industry experience beyond perhaps having bought a house themselves. They believe the real estate industry is "broken" and they can "fix it," but they haven't done research or talked to industry professionals.

"Those folks can still be successful, but those folks should probably trust their gut a little bit less that they know precisely what to build to get this off the ground." - Michael"

This team would benefit from starting with a simpler approach, talking to people in the industry, and building expertise along the way rather than assuming they already know the solution.

⚠️ Common Mistakes

The hosts identify a pattern where founders often operate in ways misaligned with their experience levels:

When Experts Act Like Novices

Experienced founders sometimes doubt their expertise and undervalue their insights:

"I've seen so often the founder with expertise where I'm like 'you know so much about this,' will be afraid. 'Maybe the thing I built was only... no one else will want it' or 'maybe my taste is unique.'" - Dalton"

Another common mistake is when founders know exactly what the market needs but try to add buzzwords like AI to make their startup seem more "fundable":

"Oh, we actually know exactly what kind of software mortgage underwriters want, but we're building something with AI because we think we need to say it's AI-related to raise money, versus the thing that we know is actually the problem does not involve AI at all." - Michael"

When Novices Act Like Experts

Meanwhile, inexperienced founders sometimes overplan as if they already have deep expertise:

"The team with no expertise who are planning out their hiring and talking about how much money they need and reading Goldman Sachs reports about market sizes and 'oh well, we need two years to build it because it's really complicated, it has to be comprehensive solution.'" - Dalton"

These founders would benefit from building the smallest possible solution and learning as they go, rather than assuming they already know exactly what needs to be built.

🧠 Tailored Approaches

The hosts emphasize that their advice isn't about having a universal "right way" to approach startup building. Instead, founders should adapt their approach based on their expertise level:

If you have expertise:

  • Trust your instincts more
  • Build something that would impress yourself
  • Don't feel the need to add buzzwords to make your idea seem more "fundable"
  • Use your domain knowledge as a competitive advantage

If you're building expertise:

  • Keep your initial solution simple
  • Be open to learning and adapting
  • Choose an area you're genuinely excited to learn about
  • Don't commit to complicated, long-term plans upfront

"Most folks that we fund, most folks that get into YC, don't have a ton of expertise. That is totally fine. It just means you should admit that to yourself and start really simple and learn on the fly." - Michael"

The hosts conclude by noting the value of personalized advice:

"I think this is what's fun about working at YC is how often when in office hours with a founder I'm like, 'Oh, actually you should maybe do it differently than what you might hear in the video.' You're like, that's the kind of cool thing about working with people one-on-one. You can actually customize." - Michael"

💎 Key Insights

  • One-size-fits-all startup advice doesn't work - your approach should be tailored to your specific background and expertise level.

  • Founders with deep domain expertise should trust their instincts more and build products that would impress themselves.

  • Founders without relevant experience should be more cautious about assuming they know what to build and should focus on learning quickly.

  • A common mistake is when experienced founders doubt their expertise, while inexperienced founders over-plan as if they already know everything.

  • If you lack domain expertise, choose to work in an area you're genuinely excited to learn about, as you'll need to build that expertise along the way.

  • Building "what impresses you" is good advice for experts because they have the taste and judgment to discern quality in their domain.

  • Don't add buzzwords like "AI" to your product just to make it seem more fundable if that's not actually what solves the problem.

  • For inexperienced founders, starting with a simple solution and learning from real users is more effective than extensive planning based on market reports.