undefined - Signs Your Company Is Recovering From ZIRP

Signs Your Company Is Recovering From ZIRP

As Dalton & Michael have discussed before, ZIRP stands for 'Zero Interest Rate Policy' which refers to when the Federal Reserve sets interest rates around 0% and banks were able to borrow money for almost nothing.

November 16, 202417:39

Table of Contents

Segment 1
Segment 2
Segment 3

💰 What is Zirpes?

"Zero Interest Rate Phenomenon" (Zirpes) was a term coined by an intelligent founder to describe the crazy period during COVID where:

"Money was thrown around like trees and funds were doing amazing and KPIs and metrics didn't matter."

This term perfectly captures the era when companies operated with seemingly unlimited resources and minimal accountability. Now we're in the recovery phase, and companies are responding differently.

A key distinction made by Dalton and Michael:

  • If your company is effectively recovering from Zirpes = GOOD (stay there, your stock will be worth more)
  • If your company is not effectively recovering = Maybe consider starting a startup? "Not the worst idea"

👔 Executive Turnover

Executive turnover, usually considered a negative sign, is actually a positive indicator that your company is recovering from Zirpes.

Why executive turnover is good:

  • It removes executives who came from "big company" environments
  • These are people "used to an infinite resource scenario with little accountability"
  • As Michael colorfully puts it, this type of executive is "a mere paper cut inside of Google and it is a massive flesh-eating virus inside of a scaling up starter"

The founder effect:

"You'll often see the founders doing more... it's like the founders wake up one day and they're like 'oh no I have to run this company, we're toast, and all these people I hired are actively burning us to the ground'"

The founders getting more involved is a positive sign, even though there's often an "immune response" from the organization:

"Whoa whoa whoa, you hired us to do these things... you shouldn't be working on products, I'm your head of product."

Even giving executives the benefit of the doubt (they were hired "at the height of ZIRP to execute on a strategy that in the cold light of current environment is not a strategy they want to work on"), it still indicates a need for change.

🏢 Returning to Office

Return-to-office policies, while controversial, are actually a positive sign that your company is recovering from Zirpes.

During the height of Zirpes:

"People are like 'you know we're never going to have offices anymore, like we should just tear down the office buildings, let's turn them all into apartments'"

"Some of the founders loved it, they're like 'oh I could just live in a tropical island... Bali...'"

Why RTO is actually good:

  • It shows senior management "has gotten real" and "has gotten religion on how to get their company back on track"
  • For ambitious employees, this should be a relief - "it's a sign your equity might be worth something"

Michael points to empirical evidence about proximity and productivity:

"Cities exist... what are cities? Collections of people who are closer to each other, and it's obvious that cities create productivity."

"Having a deeper connection with people you're working with gives you the ability to potentially be more productive."

The meta point: Even if you personally dislike RTO, management making hard decisions is a good sign of critical thinking and a winning culture.

"A big part of ZIRP was using money to not have to make any hard decisions. Give everybody everything, always. All the money's free, you could do anything, you could live anywhere."

🏆 Vanity Projects

The elimination of vanity projects is another sign your company is recovering from Zirpes.

What are vanity projects? Projects that exist primarily to:

  • Get someone a promotion
  • Build an empire within the company
  • Justify more resources and headcount

"It's like 'I don't want to call it what it is,' to justify the promotion of someone. It's like 'here, build this thing.' Okay, I'm going to throw this in the trash. Thank you. All of your hard work is going to get me promoted though."

Michael equates this to stealing:

"It's like if you stole money from a bank and put it in your bank account."

The core problem is self-perpetuation:

"I need resources to do things so that I can get more resources to do things, and basically the game you're playing is how many people can you get in your org reporting to you so you continue to level up."

However, they don't blame individuals but rather the system:

"I don't want to blame those people because I would argue that that machine, that system that they're trying to optimize, was created on purpose or not by the founders of that company."

Positive signs:

  • People who were running vanity projects are gone or redirected to useful work
  • Management saying "we're not going to do this stuff anymore"
  • Leadership being intentional about culture and not copying big company practices

📚 References

Throughout this segment, the hosts reference:

  • ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy/Phenomenon) - The economic environment during COVID where money was easily available and financial metrics were less important
  • Big tech companies vs. startups - Contrasting cultures and management approaches
  • Remote work vs. office-based work - The impact on productivity and company culture
  • San Francisco - Referenced as a place that lived in a remote-work world for 2-3 years

💎 Key Insights

  • Zirpes (Zero Interest Rate Phenomenon) was the COVID-era environment where money flowed freely and businesses operated with minimal financial accountability
  • Executive turnover is actually a positive sign of ZIRP recovery, as it removes big-company executives unsuited for the new reality
  • Return-to-office policies, while unpopular with some, signal management is making hard decisions and getting serious about productivity
  • Elimination of vanity projects shows leadership is focusing on customer value rather than empire-building
  • Companies effectively recovering from Zirpes are likely better long-term bets for employment and equity value
  • Founders becoming more hands-on is often a positive indicator of company course correction

🎁 Benefits

The reduction of excessive workplace perks and benefits is another indicator that a company is recovering from Zirpes.

During the Zirpes era, companies offered elaborate benefits:

"I used to get this Door Dash thing and free haircuts and massages and you know 16 days of personal mental health time and blah blah blah blah blah"

When these benefits start disappearing, some employees interpret it negatively:

"My company doesn't respect me and is not looking out for my best interest"

But Dalton and Michael argue this is actually "a sign of just getting real" and what management is looking for are:

"Employees that are like 'yeah I want to work at a real place, I want to work on real products that help real customers, I want to be paid for my work and compensated, but please don't treat me like a child'"

Michael highlights a fundamental misunderstanding:

"I think some of the analogies that maybe you rightfully expect from a government... you expect a government to create a social safety net, you give up taxes and you give up certain rights to your government and maybe you expect that in return... the company you work for is not a government."

"We're required to pay taxes to the government so our expectations that we need to get something in return... that company, it's not the same relationship."

The pandemic temporarily justified some of these practices:

"During a pandemic, shit's scary and a company trying to step up and do right in a scary moment for their employees makes sense, but it also makes sense that when things aren't scary maybe some of those practices get taken away."

The TikTok phenomenon: They discuss a genre of TikToks where people brag about doing no work:

"Oh hey come join me while I do no work at my job at LinkedIn... the day in the life is they do nothing."

"The better ones are when they're working on vacation... they're not on vacation, they're just in the pool."

The hosts argue that "fake work jobs" are actually harmful:

"Ultimately fake work jobs make a lot of people sad and it is dystopian... you're a drone in a machine where you're like 'I do work that doesn't matter, I don't even need to work, no one cares about my work output, my life is a joke.'"

"That does not create happy people that are satisfied with society, not good for mental health."

⏰ Lifestyle

The lifestyle adjustment – particularly working more hours – is another sign of Zirpes recovery.

The hosts present a scenario of someone complaining:

"During Peak ZIRP, when my company was infected with Zirpes, I was working three days a week and I got to enjoy a lot of hobbies, I got to travel, I lived the nomadic lifestyle, and I felt like I had great work life balance. This week my boss asked me to do something over the weekend... that is a violation, you should report him to HR."

The hosts joke about this mentality but make a serious point:

"I have to work more is a sign your company's recovering from ZIRP."

"It takes a lot of hard work to make a good company happen and especially in these kind of large scale uppy pre-IPO companies, there's a lot of work to do."

They emphasize the reality check needed:

"It's so easy to think you're at Google when you're not at Google, and you have to turn your eyes on and your brain on for five seconds and then be like 'oh this isn't Google, I have to work really hard. I'm still part of making this thing happen, this thing could still not make it.'"

The correction process is ongoing:

"ZIRP interest rates stopped a while ago, but there's a lot of slow unwinding of all this stuff. It's literally taking years for the course correction to happen. It's not done yet."

Strategic advice for employees:

"One, it's great if you're working at a company that's recovering from ZIRP. Two, can you be on the right side of the recovery? You don't want to be seen as part of the problem, you want to be seen as part of the recovery."

For those who put in effort during Zirpes but weren't rewarded:

"If you're at the right kind of company, those efforts will only be rewarded more and more now... eventually the hard workers get ahead, eventually they get ahead."

📊 Summary

The hosts acknowledge that working at a company recovering from Zirpes might be challenging:

"It might be hard if you're working at a company recovering from Zirpes... your lifestyle might be taking a hit"

But they emphasize the benefits:

"If you're actually doing this so that you can make a great product, serve customers, make the world a better place, actually learn skills, be a part of a team that's doing things, you're going to learn a lot more."

They compare it to education:

"This is like the decision between going to a challenging school and not challenging school. You're going to learn more at a challenging school, and you're going to learn more around people who want to be at a challenging school."

"You're going to have so much more fun being with people who want to work hard versus people who want to be on permanent nomadic whatever."

Their advice if your company shows no signs of recovery:

"If you are at a company that is not recovering from Zirpes and there's evidence of Zirpes everywhere... you might want to find a different job, or you might want to start a company, you might want to bootstrap, you might want to work for yourself."

They acknowledge lifestyle flexibility is possible through self-employment:

"If you want to live a very flexible lifestyle, there are ways to work for yourself and pull that off."

Final warning:

"But be careful where you are because it might not be around."

📚 References

In this segment, the hosts reference:

  • Door Dash - Food delivery service mentioned as a typical Zirpes-era perk
  • LinkedIn - Referenced in the context of people showing off "no work" jobs on TikTok
  • Google - Used as an example of a large company with established practices that smaller companies try to emulate
  • TikTok - Social media platform where people brag about doing no work at their jobs
  • The Matrix - Film referenced as an analogy for the dystopian nature of fake work jobs

💎 Key Insights

  • Reduction in lavish benefits signals a company's return to focusing on real work rather than employee coddling
  • Increased work expectations indicate a shift toward productivity and genuine contribution
  • Companies are not governments and shouldn't be expected to provide social safety nets or treat employees like dependents
  • "Fake work" jobs are actually harmful to mental health and personal satisfaction
  • The correction from Zirpes is a multi-year process that is still ongoing
  • Strategic employees will position themselves as part of the solution, not part of the problem
  • Hard work will be rewarded more in post-Zirpes environments than during the Zirpes era
  • If your company shows no signs of recovery, consider finding a different job or starting your own venture