Kirsten Green's $500M Bet on Consumer AI

Ruchi Sanghvi, Partner at South Park Commons, introduces her guest Kirsten Green, founder of Forerunner Ventures. Ruchi expresses her excitement about finally meeting Kirsten after attempting to get an introduction for nearly a decade.

Ruchi mentions that she won't formally introduce Kirsten as her first question will cover background information. She notes that Kirsten has worked in public markets, started a venture fund with the latest fund being around $500 million, and has a "Midas touch" for D2C companies like Glossier, Hims and Hers, and Chime.

Timestamp: [00:58-01:54]

Ruchi asks Kirsten about her early career experiences working in retail at a mall, counting inventory in grocery stores, and seeking "on the ground" experiences. She inquires about key takeaways from these experiences and whether Kirsten looks for similar hustle in founders she invests in.

Kirsten explains that her early career came from practical necessity rather than passion. She started in public accounting after college - "not the dream job but an incredible skill set that I've leveraged every day since." While most accounting work wasn't inspiring, field assignments provided valuable perspective.

One memorable experience involved conducting inventory in "a freezing meat locker in a space suit" for Safeway. These field experiences showed her "it's more fun to be out in the field doing stuff" rather than desk work.

Later, working in equity research covering retail companies, Kirsten noticed a gap in how her older colleagues analyzed mall retailers. She created her own edge through primary research:

This experience taught her "the power of primary research and the value of looking at what are the users doing." While financial models and media soundbites had value, direct observation allowed her to "see something different or something that somebody else hasn't seen."

Kirsten reflects that this became a "magic moment" in retrospect, as she developed a talent for spotting trends early, like identifying Ugg boots as an emerging trend "when that stock was like $2 and nobody was interested in it." This experience laid groundwork for her venture capital approach of "spotting things early."

Timestamp: [01:54-05:12]

Ruchi asks about misconceptions regarding the early days of some of Kirsten's successful investments like Glossier, Hims and Hers, and Dollar Shave Club.

Kirsten explains that a common misconception is that she simply "invested in cool brands," which misses the deeper investment thesis. She shares the story of one of her first investments, Bonobos (with founder Andy Dunn in the audience):

Despite these concerns, Kirsten recognized something more fundamental: "this was a change happening in how people were going to discover products and what people were going to expect out of service and how business was going to meet that opportunity."

Her investment thesis focused on "how technology, which had sort of come into our lives in so many ways... would reshape other channels of business." Kirsten's early investments consistently existed "at the intersection of behavior shift and a technology and business model shift."

She articulates her framework as looking for "the Venn diagram of shifting/changing behavior and building demand against where business is not addressing that opportunity and then when there is tech innovation." While the products were indeed "cool," that wasn't the core investment rationale.

Ruchi playfully notes that when discussing men's fashion investments, she had to look at the audience "to see if men's fashion has improved," joking that Andy does "fit checks regularly on social media so he's working on it."

Timestamp: [05:12-07:44]

Ruchi shifts the conversation to AI, noting that DeepSeek has been in the news and suggesting that "the winners here are actually the consumers." She references Jevons' Paradox—when services become cheaper, usage actually increases—suggesting that as AI training costs decrease (as indicated by DeepSeek's announcements), consumer AI services will become more affordable and thus more widely used. Given Kirsten's consumer focus, Ruchi asks where she thinks consumer AI is headed.

Kirsten responds with enthusiasm about the current investment landscape:

She believes generative AI "unlocks a whole new dimension of what's possible" where "every category is really up for reimagination." At Forerunner Ventures, they describe the current moment as "the messy creative stage," advising to "meet the market with an open-mindedness" while maintaining discernment from past experiences.

Kirsten explains how technology shifts typically unfold in business: infrastructure comes first, followed by B2B applications. This pattern explains why recent years have seen more energy and funding in infrastructure and B2B AI applications:

She notes that B2B markets are "fueled and ignited through competition" as companies respond to new offerings, creating an "avalanche of opportunity." In contrast, "consumers are different—they're not fueled specifically by competition, they're fueled by being compelled." To win with consumers requires delivering something "meaningfully better than what they already have" or solving a new problem.

Kirsten sees DeepSeek's announcement as significant because cost reduction expands possibilities: "maybe this is the start of cost really coming down... and I think that opens up the opportunity to a broader set of use cases." She concludes that her team is actively considering "what it takes to win with consumers" in AI and "where we think some of those things might show up first" against the backdrop that "it's all up for grabs and reimagination."

Timestamp: [07:44-11:37]

• The value of "on the ground" primary research and direct observation in identifying emerging trends before they become obvious to others
• Successful early-stage consumer investments aren't simply about "cool brands" but about identifying the intersection of behavior shifts, technology innovation, and business model changes
• Kirsten's investment framework focuses on the "Venn diagram" where changing consumer behavior meets unaddressed business opportunities and technological innovation
• While B2B markets are fueled by competition, consumer markets are driven by being "compelled" by something meaningfully better or novel
• The evolution of technology shifts typically starts with infrastructure development before moving to B2B applications and eventually consumer applications
• Decreasing AI costs (as seen with DeepSeek) will likely expand the range of viable consumer AI use cases
• Kirsten believes we're in "the messy creative stage" of AI development where "every category is up for reimagination"

Timestamp: [00:58-11:37]

People:

• Andy Dunn - Founder of Bonobos, mentioned as one of Kirsten's first investments (2006-2007)

Companies/Brands:

• Forerunner Ventures - Kirsten Green's venture fund, with latest fund around $500 million
• Glossier - Mentioned as one of Kirsten's successful D2C investments
• Hims and Hers - Mentioned as one of Kirsten's successful D2C investments
• Chime - Mentioned as one of Kirsten's successful D2C investments
• Bonobos - Early investment by Kirsten (before founding Forerunner), selling pants to men online
• Dollar Shave Club - Mentioned as one of Kirsten's successful investments
• Safeway - Where Kirsten did inventory counts early in her accounting career
• Ugg - Brand Kirsten identified as an emerging trend when its stock was around $2
• DeepSeek - AI company mentioned in context of reducing AI training costs

Concepts:

• Jevons' Paradox - Economic concept that when services become cheaper, usage increases rather than decreases
• Primary Research - Approach Kirsten used to develop edge in equity research, visiting malls to observe consumer behavior

Timestamp: [00:58-11:37]

Kirsten outlines three essential pillars for winning in consumer AI: establishing a competitive moat, building a great product, and developing trust with users.

For creating a competitive moat in consumer AI, Kirsten examines how business models have evolved over time:

She explains how early tech giants like Google, Amazon, Expedia, and PayPal leveraged this network effects model. Then came the mobile phase focused on "instant access" with high convenience and engagement, creating companies that became verbs ("Ubering," "Googling," "DoorDashing").

For the AI era, Kirsten sees data-powered learning loops as the key moat:

She believes AI's ability to process large amounts of data will enable true personalization, creating significant switching costs for users once they're embedded in a service:

Citing Spotify as an example, she notes users have "committed millions of actions to bring their playlist to life," creating a substantial barrier to leaving the platform.

For building great products, Kirsten emphasizes that today's successful founders need different strengths than previous eras:

While the internet era required coding skills and the mobile wave demanded understanding of notification-driven behavior, the AI era requires creating "proactive" and "seamless" experiences that feel "effortless" while working in partnership with users. Technical strength remains important, but "speed and scale isn't what's going to totally get you there."

On trust, Kirsten highlights three consumer concerns that must be addressed: transparency about who's building the AI and how data is used, apprehension about surrendering control, and fear of displacement. She recommends building transparency into products, including users in the journey, and not rushing toward full automation:

Timestamp: [11:44-18:28]

Ruchi, who previously worked at Facebook, asks how distribution will change in the consumer AI era. She references her experience with platform evolution—seeing Instagram grow on Facebook's foundation and TikTok grow on Instagram's—while noting she's currently "blasted with Instagram ads that are really effective because I keep clicking on them and buying things." She wonders whether distribution in the AI era will still rely on paid social media ads or evolve differently.

Kirsten acknowledges the web's inherently social nature:

She frames a key concept her team is exploring as "search to service"—the reimagination of search functionality:

However, she highlights the current limitations of these interactions—each session starts fresh without personal context:

Kirsten sees opportunity in products that "meet the user and leverage a set of data to serve up something that speaks to that data that then gets you closer to taking an action."

Using travel planning as an example, she describes how a platform could aggregate data from multiple personal sources:

Regarding advertising specifically, Kirsten believes there will be "different iterations of the same—things that have viral factors, things that have K factors" and confirms "advertising will still have to happen. SaaS companies will still need sales forces. B2C companies will still need to reach consumers."

Ruchi expresses skepticism about Instagram-style ads appearing in AI agents: "Those two words just don't meld for me. It's almost like having a LinkedIn experience in my Facebook experience."

Kirsten agrees that effective AI products won't simply incorporate AI into existing experiences:

She concludes that while advertising will remain significant, "they will look different than they have looked in the past."

Timestamp: [18:28-22:44]

• Winning in consumer AI requires three essential pillars: establishing a competitive moat, building a great product, and developing trust with users
• Different tech eras have featured different competitive moats: network effects (internet era), instant access/daily habits (mobile era), and now data-powered learning loops (AI era)
• True personalization—long promised but rarely delivered—will finally be unlocked by AI's ability to process and learn from large amounts of data
• Products with deep personalization create high switching costs for users (Spotify given as example)
• The AI era requires founders with different skills—less about building from scratch and more about "assembling" components into seamless experiences
• Consumer trust in AI relies on transparency about data usage, giving users some control, and addressing fears of displacement
• "Search to service" represents a major opportunity to reimagine search with personalized context from multiple data sources
• Traditional advertising will continue but will be reimagined for AI contexts rather than simply transferred from existing formats
• Successful AI consumer products won't just add AI to existing experiences but will fundamentally reimagine the entire product experience

Timestamp: [11:44-22:44]

Companies/Platforms:

• Google - Mentioned as an early tech giant that leveraged network effects
• Amazon - Mentioned as an early tech giant that leveraged network effects
• Expedia - Mentioned as an early tech giant that leveraged network effects
• PayPal - Mentioned as an early tech giant that leveraged network effects
• Uber - Referenced as a company that became a verb ("Ubering") during the mobile era
• DoorDash - Referenced as a company that became a verb ("DoorDashing") during the mobile era
• Spotify - Cited as an example of personalization creating high switching costs
• Facebook - Platform where Ruchi worked, mentioned in context of platform evolution
• Instagram - Referenced as growing on Facebook's foundation and for effective targeted advertising
• TikTok - Mentioned as growing on Instagram's foundation
• ChatGPT - Referenced in context of reimagining search functionality
• Claude - Referenced alongside ChatGPT as an example of LLM search capability

Concepts:

• Network Effects - Business model from internet era focusing on aggregation and disintermediation
• Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) - Metric mentioned in context of building a moat
• Daily Habit - Key engagement driver during the mobile era
• Search to Service - Kirsten's term for reimagining search with AI and personalization
• K Factor - Viral growth metric mentioned in context of distribution
• Switching Costs - Barrier to users leaving a platform once deeply personalized
• Product Orchestration - Referenced approach to building AI products beyond just adding AI features

Timestamp: [11:44-22:44]

Ruchi shifts the conversation to ask what consumer AI applications have captured Kirsten's attention in this early phase of AI development.

Kirsten shares several areas and specific investments that have interested her team:

She outlines their investments across multiple verticals:

Commerce: "We've made an investment in a commerce angle with that in mind on Daydream."

Travel: "We've made an investment in the travel space in a company called mTrip."

Healthcare: "We've made a couple of investments in healthcare, one that comes from your personal data called Superpower and one that comes from aggregated data from medical professionals called Brun."

Productivity: "In this world of being effortless, how do you work with an AI-enabled product to get stuff done, to get things off your to-do list? We invested in a company called Duckbill. They're working on being able to automate and to be able to service with human-in-the-loop more than what's ever been possible before."

Kirsten describes two different approaches to building consumer AI companies:

While acknowledging that "it's still early," she emphasizes that consumer AI development "is happening" with "plenty of things that spark our attention" and warrant "robust discussion around our table with actual products to touch and feel and play with."

Timestamp: [22:49-24:46]

Ruchi references articles published by Kirsten's team that focus on specific verticals like health and wellness, education, and safety. She then shares a perspective she often tells SPC members about the unique opportunity AI presents:

She notes that technologists and product people "have never had the opportunity to do that before," which makes the current moment "so exciting." Ruchi then asks Kirsten to pick one vertical and describe how she imagines it being transformed five years from now.

Kirsten believes Ruchi may be referencing their concept of "being the CEO of your own life":

She observes this fluidity already emerging in careers, suggests education needs more of it, and highlights healthcare as particularly ripe for transformation:

Kirsten explains that her team is looking for ideas that support people "in a world where there is less structure... where it's more about making it up as you go along... in a way where you have flexibility in how you're approaching it and you have the opportunity to pivot on your own." This has led them to focus on solutions around "personal productivity and about personal potential."

Timestamp: [24:46-27:38]

Ruchi describes South Park Commons' philosophy of encouraging founders to take their time in the "minus one to zero phase" of company building:

She emphasizes that while you can make things "marginally better," to "truly build a longlasting company," founders should "give yourself the time to build great things and take that risk."

Ruchi then shares a question from an SPC member who is building a consumer product. The member notes that "traction" is a consumer investor's favorite word, and while you might have a great prototype, investors are primarily looking for traction and engagement. The question: for pre-revenue companies, what does Kirsten's evaluation process look like?

Kirsten begins by confirming that Forerunner does invest pre-revenue, though "very selectively":

She explains that their deep focus on specific topics makes them comfortable investing early because they can contextualize opportunities within larger market trends they've been tracking:

When evaluating founders at this early stage, Kirsten looks for:

1. Someone who "sees those nuggets"
2. Someone "building for an opportunity that they see"
3. Someone who can "speak to what's happening now and why they see a need for it and why that might unfold over time"

She values "having an engaging conversation around that topic and kind of sharing ideas on that topic."

Beyond the conceptual, Kirsten also wants to understand concrete execution:

She notes these practical questions aren't unique to consumer companies and likely apply to SaaS businesses as well. The universal questions are:

Timestamp: [27:38-30:49]

• Forerunner Ventures is investing in "big front doors" to the digital realm that build context for users across verticals like commerce (Daydream), travel (mTrip), healthcare (Superpower, Brun), and productivity (Duckbill)
• Two distinct approaches to building consumer AI companies: starting with a "big front door" concept and layering in features, or starting with a narrow focus and expanding outward
• AI uniquely enables founders to "build for the future" rather than just solving today's problems—a departure from traditional product development approaches
• Kirsten's team focuses on solutions for a "more fluid" world with "less structure," helping people become "CEO of their own life" with greater flexibility and ability to pivot
• Healthcare stands out as a vertical ripe for AI transformation because it's universally important and "dealing with broken systems" creates clear needs
• South Park Commons encourages founders to embrace the "minus one to zero phase" to build conviction and pursue truly transformative ideas rather than marginal improvements
• When evaluating pre-revenue consumer companies, Forerunner looks for founders who see market opportunities before others, can articulate why the need exists now, and can explain how it might evolve
• Early-stage evaluation includes both conceptual alignment with market trends and practical questions about go-to-market approach, minimum viable product definition, and testing/learning plans
• Core questions for any early-stage founder: How well do you know your market? How confidently can you speak to the opportunity? What hypotheses will you test with your first product?

Timestamp: [22:49-30:49]

Companies/Organizations:

• Forerunner Ventures - Kirsten's venture capital firm
• South Park Commons (SPC) - Organization where Ruchi is a partner, known for supporting founders in the "minus one to zero phase"
• Daydream - Commerce company invested in by Forerunner
• mTrip - Travel company invested in by Forerunner
• Superpower - Healthcare company invested in by Forerunner, focused on personal data
• Brun - Healthcare company invested in by Forerunner, focused on aggregated data from medical professionals
• Duckbill - Productivity company invested in by Forerunner, working on automation with human-in-the-loop

Concepts:

• "CEO of your own life" - Concept from Forerunner about navigating a more fluid world with less structure
• "Big front doors" - Kirsten's term for category-level entry points to the digital realm that build user context
• "Minus one to zero phase" - SPC's description of the ideation and conviction-building stage before company formation
• "Human-in-the-loop" - Approach to AI that keeps humans involved in the process, mentioned in context of Duckbill
• Portfolio investing - Approach mentioned by Kirsten regarding selective pre-revenue investments
• V1 (Version 1) - First version of a product to test hypotheses, discussed in context of evaluation process

Timestamp: [22:49-30:49]

Ruchi asks about a trend she's observed among consumer founders, particularly in New York, who are choosing to forgo venture capital:

Kirsten acknowledges this trend, revealing that the second most common reason they pass on opportunities is alignment with venture expectations:

She emphasizes that venture capital seeks "big outcomes, things that have big consequences in people's lives, that have big opportunities." This doesn't mean the non-venture businesses are small—they "have the potential to be huge businesses."

Ruchi elaborates on the types of consumer apps she's referring to, including apps for designing rooms based on Spotify playlists and chat bots with different personalities. She notes they do have potential to become large eventually, adding: "As an investor I'd love to invest in them if they take my money."

Kirsten broadens the observation beyond consumer startups:

She views this development positively: "That's exciting for entrepreneurship." She explains the market dynamic driving this shift:

This reality means venture firms need to provide clear value: "We need to be showing up with a great value proposition and a great partnership promise and hopefully smart questions that help a founder think sharper about what they're doing."

Kirsten describes Forerunner's selective approach: their core fund focuses on seed and Series A investments, but they "only invest in 25 companies per fund, which is pretty edited at that early stage." She concludes that founder flexibility in company building and financing "is great news for entrepreneurs because it's just one more way in which you can be successful, but it doesn't limit our opportunity either."

Timestamp: [30:54-34:08]

Returning to the "minus one to zero phase" discussion, Ruchi asks if Kirsten has observed any counterintuitive attributes of successful consumer founders that contradict traditional tech investing narratives.

Kirsten begins with universal founder traits:

She emphasizes the delicate balance required: "You can't be all over the place and misinterpret signals as change, but you need to walk a line between the two." Additionally, founders must "really need to know your end user and you need to know what problem you're solving for them."

Ruchi follows up by noting the distinctive profiles of Forerunner's portfolio founders compared to typical San Francisco tech founders:

Kirsten reflects on Forerunner's 13-year evolution, describing a venture capitalist's role as having "one foot in today and maybe a foot and a hand in tomorrow, really thinking about what's next." She explains how they avoid repetitive investments:

Instead, they ask: "What learnings have we taken from this experience? What evolution related—like another click away or another push forward—is happening in this space or an adjacent one to it?" This approach leads them to continually move forward with market evolution.

Regarding the companies Ruchi mentioned (Away and Glossier), Kirsten notes they were investments from 2012 and 2013, suggesting their portfolio has continued to evolve. Looking across their funds, she believes you would see "a couple of themes" and "different kinds of business models in those themes."

On founder profiles specifically, Kirsten focuses less on patterns:

She concludes by noting they have "plenty of tech-forward companies too in our portfolio," suggesting diversity rather than a specific non-technical founder preference.

Timestamp: [34:08-36:52]

Ruchi brings up a question she had forgotten to ask earlier, one that she believes is top of mind for the audience: based on Kirsten's experience with portfolio companies, what growth channels have they found most effective?

Kirsten acknowledges that her answer might initially seem unsatisfying but ultimately proves true:

She explains how consumer behavior typically requires multiple touchpoints:

This creates a mental journey where awareness gradually builds: "There is a journey that people go on before they start to feel like 'Oh yeah, I've heard about that.' It's almost taking shape in their mind before they've even bought the product or bought the service or engaged with it."

Given this reality, Kirsten advises a comprehensive approach:

Importantly, she notes this fundamental approach hasn't changed over time:

Kirsten summarizes the essential marketing framework:

She hesitates using "authentic" because it's "so overused," though it's "the right one." When Ruchi asks for the second most important thing after authenticity, Kirsten circles back to her initial point:

Ruchi notes she has more questions but they're running out of time, so she wants to transition to audience questions. She references one of Kirsten's earlier statements about the abundance of venture funding before the segment ends.

Timestamp: [36:52-39:51]

• A growing trend of consumer founders, particularly in New York, are choosing to bypass venture capital despite building potentially large businesses
• The second most common reason Forerunner passes on opportunities is misalignment between the business model and venture capital expectations
• There is currently "more money floating around wanting to fund the next big thing than there is a real next big thing happening," creating pressure on VCs to differentiate
• Forerunner maintains selectivity by investing in only 25 companies per fund at the seed/Series A stage
• Successful founders balance tenacity and vision with flexibility and continuous learning—they can't be "all over the place" but must be willing to iterate
• Forerunner avoids pattern-matching investments (like funding the "Dollar Shave Club of everything") and instead looks for evolution in business models and markets
• Kirsten focuses less on founder archetypes and more on their passion for solving specific problems and their credibility
• Despite significant changes in marketing channels over time, the fundamental approach remains constant: be nimble, try everything, and know when to scale successful tactics
• Consumers typically need 3-5 touchpoints across different channels before taking action, creating a mental journey where awareness gradually builds
• Effective marketing requires clarity on product promise, value proposition, and customer archetypes, then consistently communicating these across multiple channels
• Authenticity remains essential but must be paired with agility and a structured framework of "pillars" that guide messaging across channels

Timestamp: [30:54-39:51]

Companies/Organizations:

• Forerunner Ventures - Kirsten's venture firm, mentioned as investing in only 25 companies per fund at seed/Series A
• Dollar Shave Club - First investment in Forerunner's first fund, mentioned as example of business model innovation
• Away - Luggage company in Forerunner's portfolio, mentioned as having a founder with non-traditional tech background
• Glossier - Beauty company in Forerunner's portfolio, mentioned as having a founder with non-traditional tech background
• Facebook - Mentioned in context of marketing connections and as an advertising channel

Concepts:

• Studio model - Referenced by Ruchi as approach used by some New York founders launching multiple apps
• "Minus one to zero phase" - SPC concept mentioned again regarding early company formation
• "The Dollar Shave Club of everything" - Kirsten's phrase for copycat business models that emerged after their successful investment
• Customer touchpoints - Marketing concept that consumers need 3-5 exposures to a brand before taking action
• Nimble/agile marketing - Kirsten's recommended approach to marketing across multiple channels
• Authenticity - Described as overused but essential quality in marketing communications
• "Giving venture the finger" - Ruchi's colorful phrase for founders rejecting venture capital

Timestamp: [30:54-39:51]

Ruchi references Kirsten's earlier statement about there being "more money floating around wanting to fund the next big thing than there are founders with authentic ideas." She notes this doesn't match the founder experience: "It doesn't feel like that when you're on the other side and it always feels like there are a lot more ideas and we are always constantly fishing out for the right fund and always getting rejected."

Kirsten acknowledges this disconnect, explaining that different investors filter opportunities differently:

She explains how Forerunner tries to be transparent about their focus areas:

She acknowledges the difficulty in matching all these criteria "is quite difficult—for us too."

Kirsten then shares a personal reflection about the irony of her career choice:

She puts the scale of this paradox into perspective with striking numbers:

Timestamp: [39:57-41:51]

A question from the audience focuses on the concept of AI agents and how they might transform consumer business models:

Kirsten engages with this new framing enthusiastically:

She confirms that the agent concept is integral to their thinking about next-generation businesses:

Kirsten embraces the terminology suggested by the questioner: "B2A, B2A to C—I like it!"

Timestamp: [41:51-43:01]

Another audience member references Kirsten's earlier comments about search, asking:

Kirsten responds with her personal frustration with traditional search:

She explains that their current investments in this area approach search from different angles:

Kirsten articulates what they're looking for in next-generation search experiences:

She acknowledges that fundamental search has already been transformed by large language models:

Timestamp: [43:01-44:15]

Another audience member asks about Kirsten's perspective on the intersection of education and the care economy, particularly in light of potential policy changes in education:

Kirsten approaches these topics from a needs-based perspective:

While avoiding political commentary ("I certainly don't want to comment on anything political, I can't keep up what's going on"), she expresses openness to education transformation:

She identifies challenges in the education market:

Kirsten notes similar dynamics in healthcare:

She highlights healthcare spending trends:

Kirsten acknowledges the complexity of opportunities in these spaces:

She concludes by explaining why these markets are attractive despite challenges:

Timestamp: [44:15-46:37]

A final audience question shifts the focus from digital to physical personalization:

Kirsten expresses shared interest in this area:

She highlights a portfolio company as an example:

Kirsten connects this to her earlier point about trust:

She observes that current personalization offerings often fall short:

Kirsten explains how physical personalization depends on broader ecosystem development:

She concludes with an optimistic note about increasing consumer receptiveness to personalization:

Timestamp: [46:37-48:28]

• The gap between founders seeking funding and VCs seeking investments stems partly from different filtering methods across firms—what one fund passes on, another might fund
• The venture investment process is highly selective: Forerunner made only 8 new investments out of approximately 6,000 meetings last year
• Kirsten sees personal irony in being drawn to venture because she "loves to say yes" yet works in "the business of saying no"
• AI agents are emerging as a new paradigm that could transform business models from B2C (Business to Consumer) to B2A to C (Business to Agent to Consumer)
• Effective consumer AI products aren't just personalized but also "predictive, proactive, effortless"
• Search transformation is occurring through "search plus" functionalities—search that helps users take actions, plan, or understand behavior patterns
• Next-generation search ("search to service") is a key area of interest for Forerunner, though LLMs have already fundamentally reinvented basic search
• Education technology faces market challenges as consumers expect education to be a free right, yet Kirsten sees urgent need for reimagination ("emergency level—we need to fix it")
• Healthcare shows growing consumer spending and represents opportunities where current solutions are "so far out of whack relative to how we have other experiences"
• Physical personalization requires solving trust and data privacy concerns first—exemplified by Forerunner's investment in Aura and Web AI
• We're in a "messy creative stage" where many interdependent technologies are being built simultaneously, creating uncertainty about which combinations will succeed
• Consumer acceptance of personalization is gradually increasing as people become more familiar with data concepts and their potential benefits

Timestamp: [39:57-48:28]

Companies/Organizations:

• Forerunner Ventures - Kirsten's venture firm, mentioned as making 8 investments out of 6,000 meetings last year
• mTrip - Travel company in Forerunner's portfolio with search elements
• Daydream - Commerce company in Forerunner's portfolio with search elements
• Duckbill - Productivity company in Forerunner's portfolio with search elements
• Superpower - Healthcare company in Forerunner's portfolio with search elements
• Brun - Healthcare company in Forerunner's portfolio with search elements
• Aura - Physical personalization company in Forerunner's portfolio focused on data privacy
• Web AI - Forerunner portfolio company that helps keep data "on premise" rather than in the cloud
• Google - Referenced regarding disruption to traditional search

Concepts:

• B2A to C (Business to Agent to Consumer) - New business model paradigm suggested by audience member
• "Search plus" - Kirsten's term for search that helps users take actions or understand patterns
• "Search to service" - Kirsten's concept for next-generation dynamic search experiences
• LLMs (Large Language Models) - Referenced as already having reinvented basic search
• "Messy creative stage" - Kirsten's description of the current phase of AI development with many interdependent technologies
• "On premise" data storage - Approach to data privacy where information stays locally stored rather than in cloud
• Physical personalization - Concept of customizing tangible products and experiences beyond digital applications

Timestamp: [39:57-48:28]

An audience member asks about healthcare and social connection, noting that healthcare is often individually focused:

Kirsten calls this "a really good question and a really fun topic," noting it's something she and Andy (Dunn) have discussed in another context. She begins by exploring the evolution of "social":

She observes that we're now "all talking about the problems and the shortcomings on that realm and we're now wondering, what is the future of social? We don't want to be lonely by ourselves. This thing that was social has made us lonely. We want more things that are connected."

Kirsten proposes thinking about "Omni Channel social":

She references earlier examples like Strava that had run clubs where users could track others' activities, then considers healthcare applications:

Kirsten believes "the nature of social is going to evolve into ways that are more multi-dimensional and intersect with all these important areas of our life."

She shares a personal anecdote that illustrates the natural connection between social interaction and health discussions:

Kirsten mentions a company they evaluated "that's doing this in the supplement space, and they're basically like, you can share on this platform your supplements routine and people are following other people who they think have good health or good stories to see what are they taking." This creates "another layer of maybe utility around social."

The conversation then naturally evolved to comparing research on supplements and discussing quality, though Kirsten notes this might be "tiered to a certain age demographic."

Timestamp: [48:33-51:51]

The final audience question references one of Kirsten's recent posts:

Kirsten begins by thanking the questioner for reading their content, then reflects on how company roles evolve across different technological eras:

She traces this evolution through tech history:

Internet Era: "The internet era was like we were just putting up the backbone of the internet, and literally it was about coding to bring something to life because otherwise nothing existed. That was the key to Google and Amazon—raw engineering talent."

Mobile Era: "Engineering talent is still super important, but there was more nuance around the experience. Now the customer had already been introduced to V1, and you're iterating on a new device and you're iterating on kind of bringing them along in behavior in a different way. And you have to think about the different experience on this device, so that begged for a different skill set or another skill set."

Current AI Era: "Now we're in this area where it really is like how you orchestrate. There's all these tools and technologies out there, we're all just playing with them right now. How you put them together so that they actually deliver a great experience and a great product and make it so that your user feels welcome in using it."

She emphasizes the importance of simplicity in design:

Kirsten likens this challenge to writing:

She concludes by affirming the critical importance of design and UI in the current era:

Ruchi then concludes the session, thanking Kirsten for her time and expressing hope she'll return to SPC soon.

Timestamp: [51:51-55:15]

• Social interactions are evolving from physical gatherings to online networks and now toward "Omni Channel social" that integrates technology with in-person experiences
• The paradox of digital social platforms: "This thing that was social has made us lonely"—driving new interest in connected experiences
• Health data sharing may naturally begin with family networks before expanding to broader social contexts
• Spontaneous social comparison of health metrics (like cholesterol levels and supplement routines) suggests natural integration points between healthcare and social features
• The key responsibilities in companies (engineering, design, product, growth) remain consistent across eras, but their relative importance shifts with technological evolution
• In the internet era, raw engineering talent was paramount as the digital infrastructure was being built
• The mobile era required more nuanced understanding of user experience and behavior as people adopted new devices
• The current AI era demands orchestration skills—the ability to assemble existing tools and technologies into seamless, intuitive experiences
• Simplicity in design becomes increasingly critical: "The tech needs to happen behind the scenes, and the simpler you can make the experience, the better"
• Creating simple, elegant products is paradoxically more difficult than complex ones, similar to how "it's a lot easier to write a really long paper than it is to write a short paragraph"
• Design and UI in the AI era must reinforce brand values, build trust, demonstrate user understanding, and fulfill product promises

Timestamp: [48:33-55:15]

Companies/Organizations:

• South Park Commons (SPC) - Organization hosting the conversation, mentioned in closing remarks
• Strava - Fitness tracking app mentioned as early example of social health tracking with "run clubs"
• Google - Referenced as example of company built on "raw engineering talent" during internet era
• Amazon - Referenced as example of company built on "raw engineering talent" during internet era
• Atomic Growth - Thanked in closing credits for making the episode happen

People:

• Andy Dunn - Referenced as working on a company related to using technology for in-person social experiences

Concepts:

• Omni Channel social - Kirsten's concept for integrating technology with in-person experiences and bringing people into shared activities
• "Intuition, elegance, and deeply personal utility" - Differentiators mentioned in Kirsten's recent post, referenced by audience question
• Statins - Cholesterol medication mentioned in Kirsten's anecdote about health discussions becoming social experiences
• UI (User Interface) - Highlighted as increasingly critical in the AI era for simplifying complex technology
• Technology eras - Kirsten's framework dividing tech evolution into internet era, mobile era, and current AI era
• "Minus One" - Podcast name mentioned in closing credits, referencing SPC's "minus one to zero" concept

Timestamp: [48:33-55:15]

Podcast Information:

• This episode is part of the "Minus One" podcast from South Park Commons
• The name references SPC's "minus one to zero" concept for early-stage company formation

Sponsorship:

• The episode was made possible by Atomic Growth, acknowledged in the closing credits

Host & Guest:

• Host: Ruchi Sanghvi, Partner at South Park Commons
• Guest: Kirsten Green, Founder of Forerunner Ventures

Timestamp: [54:53-55:15]