The Software Crisis Behind America's Infrastructure

The conversation opens with a powerful reminder about the critical need to modernize our infrastructure software systems, emphasizing the urgency of the situation.

The speakers highlight that even the most advanced equipment becomes useless if logistics systems can't deliver it where and when it's needed. They emphasize that while collective defense has existed for some time, "collective logistics" is still developing.

The opening frames a crucial perspective on software development: it's never truly complete. As one speaker notes, "Software is never complete. Software is moving incredibly fast," setting the stage for a discussion about continuous modernization.

Timestamp: [00:00-00:45]

Philip Buckendorf shares his journey from Germany to America, revealing what drove him to leave his home country and pursue opportunities in Silicon Valley.

Philip expresses frustration with Germany's economic outlook at the time, noting how the country had decided to pull out of nuclear energy to become dependent on Russian gas. He describes how the educated elite in his social circle "glorified consulting" while the government made it "as hard as possible to build anything."

His journey exemplifies the immigrant success story:

Timestamp: [00:45-03:13]

Philip explains how he and his co-founder transitioned from the autonomous vehicle industry to founding ASI (Air Space Intelligence), driven by a desire to find underserved transportation sectors.

He describes how around 2017-2018, autonomous driving was a hot field, but it felt "overly crowded." This prompted them to ask a fundamental question:

Their investigation led to a shocking discovery about the state of technology in critical infrastructure:

This revelation crystallized their mission to "enable the world's most critical operations and optimize the most valuable assets and infrastructure that we have as a country."

Timestamp: [03:13-04:34]

Lt. Gen. Leonard J. Kosinski shares his journey from a distinguished military career to joining ASI, highlighting what attracted him to the company after decades of service.

During this transition period, the General explored various opportunities but found something uniquely compelling about ASI:

He explains how data challenges were a persistent issue throughout his military career:

The combination of addressing this critical need while supporting both military and commercial sectors made ASI an attractive next step in his career.

Timestamp: [04:34-05:55]

General Kosinski describes his extensive military career, revealing how his background in optimization and logistics prepared him for the challenges of modernizing defense systems.

His career took a significant turn toward broader logistics responsibilities:

His career culminated in a critical role during multiple global crises:

This firsthand experience with the limitations of current systems across global operations reinforces the urgent need for modernization that ASI is addressing.

Timestamp: [05:55-07:08]

Philip outlines three interconnected crises facing the aviation industry today, challenging the notion that these problems should be addressed separately.

He identifies these problems as:

Philip emphasizes that these challenges are deeply interconnected rather than separate issues:

He concludes with a powerful observation about the unifying factor behind these challenges:

Timestamp: [07:08-10:14]

• The world faces a software crisis in critical infrastructure systems that demands urgent modernization
• Even the most advanced equipment becomes useless if logistics systems can't deliver it where and when needed
• Philip Buckendorf left Germany for Silicon Valley seeking a more dynamic, innovation-friendly environment
• ASI was founded after discovering shockingly outdated software in critical transportation operation centers
• General Kosinski's military experience revealed persistent data access and optimization challenges across global operations
• The aviation industry faces three interconnected crises: staffing shortages, failing legacy software, and outdated infrastructure
• These challenges should be addressed through a unified software lens rather than as separate problems
• Better software can directly address staffing issues by making operators more productive and reducing training time

Timestamp: [00:00-10:14]

Companies:

• Air Space Intelligence (ASI) - Philip and KD Lucas's company focused on modernizing software for critical operations
• Trader Joe's - Mentioned by Philip as his food source during early Silicon Valley days

People:

• Philip Buckendorf - CEO of Air Space Intelligence, immigrant entrepreneur from Germany
• KD Lucas - Co-founder of ASI with Philip
• Lt. Gen. Leonard J. Kosinski (Ret.) - Chief Strategy Officer at ASI, former Director for Logistics of the Joint Staff

Organizations:

• US Africa Command - Where General Kosinski served as director of logistics
• Joint Staff - Where General Kosinski served as director for logistics
• Department of Defense - Mentioned regarding challenges with data access and optimization

Concepts:

• Software Crisis - Central theme discussing how outdated software threatens critical infrastructure
• Collective Logistics - Emerging concept compared to the established idea of collective defense
• Defense Industrial Base - Mentioned by General Kosinski as facing significant challenges

Timestamp: [00:45-10:14]

Philip highlights a critical generational gap in air traffic control systems, where younger operators must adapt to outdated interfaces that don't match their digital native experience.

He emphasizes the stark contrast between modern consumer technology and antiquated air traffic control systems. Today's 25-year-old air traffic controllers grew up with iPads, Snapchat, and Google Maps, yet they're expected to master legacy systems designed decades ago.

This generational mismatch creates both training challenges and operational inefficiencies, underscoring why software modernization is "absolutely essential" to bring systems up to the quality standards that younger operators are accustomed to in their daily lives.

Timestamp: [10:14-10:56]

Philip frames the challenges in aviation software as fundamentally a "philosophy problem" with three critical issues that hinder modernization efforts.

The first issue he identifies is the deep coupling between software and compute hardware:

This tight coupling creates substantial risks with every update, as teams must consider whether existing hardware can handle new software. Philip argues that separating software from compute is "absolutely essential" for effective modernization, especially since:

Timestamp: [10:56-12:38]

Philip outlines the second major issue in aviation software: an antiquated development approach that treats software like hardware, creating costly delays and outdated systems before they're even deployed.

He describes a painfully inefficient process that unfolds across decades:

The inevitable result is systems that are obsolete on arrival:

Timestamp: [12:38-13:57]

Philip identifies the third critical issue in aviation software: an inability to attract top engineering talent to work on these systems due to the rigid, outdated development approach.

He explains that modern software engineers have fundamentally different expectations about their work:

This talent gap, combined with the other philosophical issues, creates a compounding problem:

General Kosinski validates this assessment, noting that the Department of Defense faces identical challenges:

Timestamp: [13:57-15:28]

General Kosinski emphasizes the critical need for speed in addressing software modernization across government systems, with no room for delays.

Philip believes the current political climate offers a unique opportunity for progress:

He notes that modernizing air traffic systems has strong bipartisan support:

However, Philip cautions that funding alone isn't enough—the implementation approach is equally critical:

Timestamp: [15:28-17:22]

Philip advocates for using existing commercial software rather than building government systems from scratch, highlighting how ASI has successfully implemented this approach.

He explains the multiple benefits of this approach:

Philip provides concrete examples of where this approach makes sense:

He draws parallels to ASI's work with the US Air Force:

Timestamp: [17:22-18:56]

Philip champions the concept of "dual-use" technology—solutions that work across both commercial and government sectors—particularly for systems like air traffic control where public and private entities must collaborate.

He explains that the benefits extend beyond mere efficiency:

Building on this point, the host notes:

Philip enthusiastically agrees:

This perspective highlights how shared technological platforms can create value beyond the sum of their parts when used across sectors.

Timestamp: [18:56-19:35]

• Modern air traffic controllers face a generational mismatch, having grown up with advanced technology but being trained on outdated legacy systems
• Aviation software modernization is hindered by three philosophical problems: coupling software with hardware, treating software like hardware development, and failing to attract top engineering talent
• The traditional development approach involves spending millions on documentation before writing any code, resulting in systems that are obsolete before deployment
• Contemporary software engineers avoid working in environments with rigid requirements and slow development cycles
• Both aviation and defense logistics face identical software challenges across all service branches
• There's an urgent need to modernize critical infrastructure software, with potential for bipartisan political support
• Using proven commercial software allows for faster, safer deployment than building custom government solutions from scratch
• Dual-use technology creates powerful network effects when the same systems are used across public and private sectors
• The national airspace system exemplifies where public-private technology collaboration is essential

Timestamp: [10:14-19:35]

Companies:

• ASI (Air Space Intelligence) - Philip's company that has successfully deployed software with the US Air Force
• IBM - Referenced for their "green screens" that older air traffic controllers grew up using
• Google - Mentioned for Google Maps, what younger controllers use in their daily lives
• Snapchat - Mentioned as technology that younger generation of controllers are familiar with
• Apple - Referenced via "iPad" as technology the younger generation is comfortable with

People:

• President Trump - Mentioned as setting direction for modernization efforts
• Secretary Duffy - Mentioned alongside President Trump for setting modernization mandate

Organizations:

• FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) - Discussed regarding their modernization needs and historical resource constraints
• US Air Force - Mentioned as having worked with ASI to rapidly deploy commercial software
• Department of Defense - General Kosinski discusses facing the same software challenges as civil aviation
• Army, Marine Corps, Air Force - Mentioned as having legacy systems within their logistics operations
• Congress - Identified as needing to fund FAA modernization efforts

Concepts:

• Dual-use technology - Software that works across both commercial and government sectors
• Network effect - Silicon Valley concept where platforms become more valuable as more users adopt them
• Legacy systems - Outdated software still in use for critical operations
• National airspace system - Infrastructure managed by government but used by private airlines

Timestamp: [10:14-19:35]

General Kosinski highlights the often-overlooked reality that the U.S. military routinely relies on commercial transportation systems for its day-to-day operations.

This dependence on commercial infrastructure underscores why the military and civilian transportation sectors need integrated software systems and collaborative approaches.

This revelation helps explain why the modernization of logistics software is not just a military concern but a national security issue that spans across public and private sectors.

Timestamp: [19:27-19:58]

General Kosinski explains the military concept of "contested logistics" and why it matters not just for defense but for everyday commerce and supply chains.

He draws a parallel to consumer experiences to make the concept relatable:

This lack of awareness extends to leadership in both civilian and military contexts:

The essence of contested logistics is anticipating and managing disruptions:

In military contexts, the concept takes on additional dimensions:

Timestamp: [19:58-21:32]

The speakers reframe logistics from a support function to a critical offensive and defensive capability—a weapon system in its own right.

General Kosinski explains how logistics underpins everything the military does:

He emphasizes that even the most advanced weapons are useless without robust logistics:

Philip frames logistics as a potential competitive advantage or vulnerability:

He uses a powerful analogy to illustrate how logistics operates in the background until it fails:

Timestamp: [21:32-22:28]

The speakers reference recent global events that have highlighted the critical importance of logistics systems and their vulnerabilities.

General Kosinski draws parallels between civilian and military logistics disruptions:

He emphasizes the need for predictive capabilities during escalations:

Philip adds that logistics systems, like air traffic control, operate invisibly until they fail:

He points out a fundamental problem in how we allocate resources:

Timestamp: [22:28-24:04]

The speakers explore why logistics continues to be underappreciated despite recent global supply chain disruptions like the pandemic.

General Kosinski identifies human nature as a key factor:

He explains that our complacency stems from decades without major global conflicts:

The General also points to the traditional view of logistics as a cost center rather than a strategic asset:

He suggests a fundamental mindset shift is occurring:

Timestamp: [24:04-25:55]

Philip explains why logistics represents the perfect case for dual-use technology that serves both military and commercial needs simultaneously.

He outlines several key reasons why this approach makes sense in logistics:

Philip highlights how adversaries already understand this strategic overlap:

From the commercial perspective, he points out why companies should embrace military-grade logistics solutions:

The ultimate benefit is preparedness for crisis situations:

Timestamp: [25:55-28:13]

Philip articulates ASI's strategic vision to create logistics software that bridges commercial and government sectors while enabling critical collaboration.

He frames this as the most authentic form of dual-use technology:

Philip extends this vision to international cooperation:

General Kosinski adds his experience with NATO's evolving approach:

He describes this shift to "collective logistics" as a common-sense evolution that's finally being institutionalized across NATO.

Timestamp: [28:13-30:13]

• The US military relies heavily on commercial transportation infrastructure for daily operations and would need even more during crises
• "Contested logistics" involves anticipating and preparing for disruptions in supply chains, whether from adversaries, weather, or maintenance issues
• Logistics should be viewed as a weapon system itself—a competitive advantage when leveraged properly or a critical vulnerability when neglected
• Recent events like the pandemic and Ukraine support operations have demonstrated the consequences of logistics failures
• There's a tendency to invest in visible hardware (drones, weapons) while neglecting the "silent software" that enables everything to function
• Human nature drives us to return to comfortable "business as usual" after crises, overlooking systemic vulnerabilities
• Traditional "just-in-time" logistics optimizes for cost but creates significant risks when supply chains are disrupted
• Logistics represents the ideal domain for dual-use technology that serves both military and commercial sectors
• China strategically deploys its logistics software in foreign ports, recognizing the strategic value of controlling these systems
• NATO has evolved from "collective defense" to "collective logistics," acknowledging that no single nation can manage modern logistics challenges alone

Timestamp: [19:27-30:13]

Companies:

• ASI (Air Space Intelligence) - Company developing dual-use logistics software for both commercial and defense sectors
• Chinese companies - Referenced for giving away port management software for free to gain strategic advantage

People:

• Philip Buckendorf - CEO of ASI, advocating for dual-use logistics technology
• General Kosinski - Former U.S. representative to the NATO logistics committee, ASI's Chief Strategy Officer

Organizations:

• NATO - Mentioned regarding their shift from "collective defense" to "collective logistics"
• NATO logistics committee - Where General Kosinski served as U.S. representative
• US military - Discussed as a major user of commercial transportation infrastructure
• Department of Defense (DoD) - Referenced regarding logistics modernization needs

Concepts:

• Contested logistics - Military term for anticipating and managing disruptions in supply chains
• Dual-use technology - Solutions that serve both commercial and military purposes
• Just-in-time logistics - Cost-efficient approach that reduces inventory but creates vulnerabilities
• Collective logistics - NATO's evolution toward coordinated multinational logistics efforts
• Civil reserve fleet - Mentioned regarding commercial transportation capacity available for military use

Events:

• COVID-19 pandemic - Referenced for exposing supply chain vulnerabilities (toilet paper, face masks)
• Ukraine support operations - Mentioned as revealing military logistics challenges with munitions movement

Timestamp: [19:27-30:13]

Philip outlines a vision for the next generation of operational software, moving beyond mere dashboards to predictive systems that can anticipate challenges before they occur.

He cites David Yulovich's observation that the world is getting "a lot more spicy," necessitating a fundamental shift in our software approach:

This uncertainty demands a new generation of software that provides foresight rather than just real-time awareness:

Timestamp: [30:13-31:22]

Philip describes the historical evolution of operational software, positioning current innovations as the fourth major revolution in computing.

The second stage introduced connectivity:

This was followed by the third stage, which expanded data collection:

Now, we're entering the fourth revolutionary stage:

Timestamp: [31:22-32:55]

Philip outlines three fundamental priorities for modernizing critical operational systems, emphasizing the need for cross-sector collaboration and proactive investment.

The first priority is developing and widely deploying predictive software:

The second priority focuses on facilitating collaboration between government and industry:

The third priority is ensuring sustained attention and investment:

Timestamp: [32:55-34:27]

General Kosinski explains how AI and decision support tools can dramatically accelerate the development of logistics expertise that traditionally takes decades to build.

He describes how traditional expertise development creates bottlenecks:

AI decision support tools offer a breakthrough solution:

This technological approach doesn't replace training but transforms it:

Timestamp: [34:27-35:48]

When asked how things might look in a decade if logistics modernization efforts succeed, Philip highlights two key outcomes: capacity optimization and resilience in an uncertain world.

He underscores that geopolitical instability is likely to persist:

This uncertainty will create ongoing logistics challenges:

Philip notes that disruption will come from multiple sources:

The goal is predictive adaptation:

Timestamp: [35:48-38:06]

General Kosinski explains how advanced logistics capabilities directly contribute to national security by preventing conflicts before they begin.

He connects this deterrence directly to logistics capabilities:

The General notes this represents a shift in thinking for the nation:

He expresses optimism about the future if these challenges are addressed:

The stakes are high for service members if these issues aren't addressed:

Timestamp: [38:06-39:05]

General Kosinski warns about the long-term strategic approach that adversaries are taking to exploit U.S. logistics vulnerabilities, requiring an urgent American response.

He uses a racing metaphor to illustrate the challenge:

The vulnerabilities are widespread and already being probed:

He references ancient strategic wisdom:

The General emphasizes how the U.S. strategic position has fundamentally changed:

Timestamp: [39:05-40:34]

Philip highlights how America's geographic advantages paradoxically create logistics challenges for global power projection that adversaries seek to exploit.

This geographic isolation creates a specific challenge for power projection:

He explains how adversaries are targeting this vulnerability:

Addressing this challenge requires a comprehensive approach:

Timestamp: [40:34-41:42]

General Kosinski and Philip discuss recent incidents that demonstrate the fragility of global logistics systems and how adversaries could exploit similar vulnerabilities.

General Kosinski highlights two significant events:

He notes these weren't necessarily malicious incidents but reveal systemic vulnerabilities:

Philip adds the importance of understanding vulnerabilities at every point in the system:

He emphasizes the need for both detection and adaptation:

Timestamp: [41:42-43:15]

• Modern software for critical operations must evolve beyond reactive dashboards to predictive systems that anticipate challenges before they occur
• We're entering the fourth major evolution of software: first came standalone computing, then internet connectivity, then IoT sensors, and now predictive systems
• Forward-simulating future states of logistics networks provides enormous competitive advantages for organizations
• Military logistics expertise traditionally takes decades to develop, but AI decision support can dramatically accelerate training and capabilities
• Future logistics systems must optimize existing capacity and harden networks against disruptions in an increasingly uncertain world
• Advanced logistics capabilities directly contribute to deterrence by ensuring forces can be deployed and sustained wherever needed
• Adversaries like China have been strategically targeting U.S. supply chain vulnerabilities for years as part of a "hundred-year marathon"
• America's oceanic buffers provide homeland security but create power projection challenges that adversaries seek to exploit
• Recent incidents like the Colonial Pipeline hack and Suez Canal blockage demonstrate the fragility of global logistics systems
• Understanding the threat profile for every node in logistics networks is essential for building resilience against attacks

Timestamp: [30:13-43:15]

Companies:

• ASI (Air Space Intelligence) - Philip's company pioneering predictive software for critical operations
• Colonial Pipeline - Referenced as suffering a significant cyberattack that disrupted fuel supplies on the East Coast

People:

• Philip Buckendorf - CEO of ASI, discussing software evolution and logistics modernization
• General Kosinski - Former director for logistics at the Joint Staff, discussing military logistics challenges
• David Yulovich - Mentioned for his observation that the world is getting "a lot more spicy" (more uncertain)
• Michael Pillsbury - Author of "The Hundred-Year Marathon" about China's long-term strategic approach
• Sun Tzu - Ancient Chinese military strategist referenced for the concept that the best war is one you don't have to fight

Organizations:

• Joint Staff - Where General Kosinski served as director for logistics
• Army, Air Force, Navy, Marines - Military branches mentioned regarding their different logistics perspectives

Concepts:

• Prediction machines - Philip's term for the next evolution in software focused on anticipating future states
• Joint logisticians - Military experts who understand multi-modal transportation across all service branches
• Contested logistics - The concept of operating supply chains under threat of disruption by adversaries
• The Hundred-Year Marathon - Book about China's long-term strategy to supplant American power
• Power projection - The ability to deploy military forces globally, requiring robust logistics

Events:

• Colonial Pipeline cyberattack - 2021 incident that disrupted fuel supplies on the U.S. East Coast
• Suez Canal blockage - 2021 incident where the container ship Ever Given blocked the canal for six days

Timestamp: [30:13-43:15]