The conversation opens with a powerful reminder about the critical need to modernize our infrastructure software systems, emphasizing the urgency of the situation.

"We have a software crisis. There's just no time to wait. If you don't have that sense of urgency, we're not going to accomplish what we need to do."

The speakers highlight that even the most advanced equipment becomes useless if logistics systems can't deliver it where and when it's needed. They emphasize that while collective defense has existed for some time, "collective logistics" is still developing.

The opening frames a crucial perspective on software development: it's never truly complete. As one speaker notes, "Software is never complete. Software is moving incredibly fast," setting the stage for a discussion about continuous modernization.

Timestamp: [00:00-00:45]

Philip Buckendorf shares his journey from Germany to America, revealing what drove him to leave his home country and pursue opportunities in Silicon Valley.

"I grew up in Germany, spent some time in the UK, and then after college around 2011-2012, I was figuring out what I wanted to do in my 20s. I knew I wanted to be in a fast-paced, demanding environment, but what I found in Europe was that most of my friends just wanted to party."

Philip expresses frustration with Germany's economic outlook at the time, noting how the country had decided to pull out of nuclear energy to become dependent on Russian gas. He describes how the educated elite in his social circle "glorified consulting" while the government made it "as hard as possible to build anything."

"I heard about Silicon Valley and I thought that sounds like an interesting place. It sounds like everyone is just obsessed with building and technology."

His journey exemplifies the immigrant success story:

"For the first three years, I slept on bunk beds and ate frozen food from Trader Joe's, but it was the most exciting environment to be in. Everyone was building in that hacker house, everyone was thinking startups and technology."

Timestamp: [00:45-03:13]

Philip explains how he and his co-founder transitioned from the autonomous vehicle industry to founding ASI (Air Space Intelligence), driven by a desire to find underserved transportation sectors.

"When KD Lucas and I started ASI, I would say we were kind of the ultimate outsiders. We weren't pilots, we were not in defense before, we were not logisticians. We worked on autonomous driving."

He describes how around 2017-2018, autonomous driving was a hot field, but it felt "overly crowded." This prompted them to ask a fundamental question:

"We started this company with a simple question: what are other modes of transportation that require better software?"

Their investigation led to a shocking discovery about the state of technology in critical infrastructure:

"The first six months of ASI, we went to operation centers and wanted to understand the state of software, the state of technology, no matter if that is in maritime or in air operation centers. I would say to some extent we expected or hoped to see science fiction. What we saw was like the most ancient software possible."

This revelation crystallized their mission to "enable the world's most critical operations and optimize the most valuable assets and infrastructure that we have as a country."

Timestamp: [03:13-04:34]

Lt. Gen. Leonard J. Kosinski shares his journey from a distinguished military career to joining ASI, highlighting what attracted him to the company after decades of service.

"I spent over 30 years of my career in the military, starting with air mobility operations and then the last seven years really in logistics. After I retired, I got the advice to give yourself about 6 months to figure out what's next after doing something for that long."

During this transition period, the General explored various opportunities but found something uniquely compelling about ASI:

"When I met the team—Philip and the team at ASI—there was just something unique and something compelling to me. While distribution platforms and planes and ships are all quite important, it really comes down to the data—to be able to access that data, to be able to optimize and figure out what we need to do."

He explains how data challenges were a persistent issue throughout his military career:

"That was something I'd say I struggled with from within the Department of Defense—to be able to just access and then to be able to understand and really optimize the things we need to do."

The combination of addressing this critical need while supporting both military and commercial sectors made ASI an attractive next step in his career.

Timestamp: [04:34-05:55]

General Kosinski describes his extensive military career, revealing how his background in optimization and logistics prepared him for the challenges of modernizing defense systems.

"I actually was initially going to be an engineer. I went to graduate school for industrial engineering, optimization-type things, neural networks back 30-plus years ago before we really had processing power to do that. Then quickly went into pilot training and flew mobility planes for many years."

His career took a significant turn toward broader logistics responsibilities:

"My first real foray into broader logistics was when I was a director of logistics for US Africa Command out of Stuttgart, Germany. That was also during the pandemic, working with Department of Defense logistics and infrastructure, trying to move around Africa—just the size and scope—and then you add on the pandemic."

His career culminated in a critical role during multiple global crises:

"Then I came back to the Joint Staff as a director for logistics with Ukraine going on, support for Israel, everything else. I realized the challenges with our defense industrial base, challenges with what we have, and really one of the main efforts there was really that data and software piece, which we just weren't very good at."

This firsthand experience with the limitations of current systems across global operations reinforces the urgent need for modernization that ASI is addressing.

Timestamp: [05:55-07:08]

Philip outlines three interconnected crises facing the aviation industry today, challenging the notion that these problems should be addressed separately.

"I think first of all, it is definitely by far still the safest domain and mode of transportation, but we're fundamentally looking at three different problems."

He identifies these problems as:

"First one is staffing. There's a significant staffing shortage right now in the industry. You've seen a lot of retirements throughout the pandemic. Training was not happening at the same speed during the COVID pandemic. And I would say the industry might have also lost a little bit the ability to attract the very, very best talent."

"Then we equally have a software crisis. We got legacy software that is faltering, that is falling apart. Whenever it happens, you have these massive outages that are incredibly consequential to the entire industry."

"And then you've got very outdated infrastructure."

Philip emphasizes that these challenges are deeply interconnected rather than separate issues:

"What is not talked about enough is how they are actually all interconnected. Staffing and software go hand in hand. If you have better software that is much more intuitive, you can train people much faster. If you have software that is supporting the operator, that operator is a lot more productive."

He concludes with a powerful observation about the unifying factor behind these challenges:

"Software is eating the world, and that is very much true for this domain. Internalizing that and the mandate to modernize now and pull this sector and this industry forward—looking at it through the software lens is absolutely critical."

Timestamp: [07:08-10:14]

• The world faces a software crisis in critical infrastructure systems that demands urgent modernization
• Even the most advanced equipment becomes useless if logistics systems can't deliver it where and when needed
• Philip Buckendorf left Germany for Silicon Valley seeking a more dynamic, innovation-friendly environment
• ASI was founded after discovering shockingly outdated software in critical transportation operation centers
• General Kosinski's military experience revealed persistent data access and optimization challenges across global operations
• The aviation industry faces three interconnected crises: staffing shortages, failing legacy software, and outdated infrastructure
• These challenges should be addressed through a unified software lens rather than as separate problems
• Better software can directly address staffing issues by making operators more productive and reducing training time

Timestamp: [00:00-10:14]

Companies:

• Air Space Intelligence (ASI) - Philip and KD Lucas's company focused on modernizing software for critical operations
• Trader Joe's - Mentioned by Philip as his food source during early Silicon Valley days

People:

• Philip Buckendorf - CEO of Air Space Intelligence, immigrant entrepreneur from Germany
• KD Lucas - Co-founder of ASI with Philip
• Lt. Gen. Leonard J. Kosinski (Ret.) - Chief Strategy Officer at ASI, former Director for Logistics of the Joint Staff

Organizations:

• US Africa Command - Where General Kosinski served as director of logistics
• Joint Staff - Where General Kosinski served as director for logistics
• Department of Defense - Mentioned regarding challenges with data access and optimization

Concepts:

• Software Crisis - Central theme discussing how outdated software threatens critical infrastructure
• Collective Logistics - Emerging concept compared to the established idea of collective defense
• Defense Industrial Base - Mentioned by General Kosinski as facing significant challenges

Timestamp: [00:45-10:14]

Philip highlights a critical generational gap in air traffic control systems, where younger operators must adapt to outdated interfaces that don't match their digital native experience.

"The generation that has retired or is about to retire, they grew up with IBM green screens. They are familiar with how to use that technology, they've used that technology for the last 30 years. But the new generation that is being trained now, they're not familiar with those legacy tools."

He emphasizes the stark contrast between modern consumer technology and antiquated air traffic control systems. Today's 25-year-old air traffic controllers grew up with iPads, Snapchat, and Google Maps, yet they're expected to master legacy systems designed decades ago.

This generational mismatch creates both training challenges and operational inefficiencies, underscoring why software modernization is "absolutely essential" to bring systems up to the quality standards that younger operators are accustomed to in their daily lives.

Timestamp: [10:14-10:56]

Philip frames the challenges in aviation software as fundamentally a "philosophy problem" with three critical issues that hinder modernization efforts.

"The way I would frame it is it's very much a philosophy problem. The philosophy on what software should look like might be a bit broken, and I think it boils down to three issues."

The first issue he identifies is the deep coupling between software and compute hardware:

"If you have software systems that are deeply coupled with the compute power, it's very hard to modernize anything, specifically if you're dealing with an industry where you have facilities all over the country. You cannot just launch an update over the air and all the software is updated. You would literally have to go from facility to facility to update the software."

This tight coupling creates substantial risks with every update, as teams must consider whether existing hardware can handle new software. Philip argues that separating software from compute is "absolutely essential" for effective modernization, especially since:

"Whatever we're modernizing now, this is not going to be the last update. Software is never complete. Software is moving incredibly fast."

Timestamp: [10:56-12:38]

Philip outlines the second major issue in aviation software: an antiquated development approach that treats software like hardware, creating costly delays and outdated systems before they're even deployed.

"Historically, software in this domain has been built as if it would be hardware, while the entire world is moving towards a direction where even the hardware companies build hardware as if it would be software. So it's in many ways the inverse."

He describes a painfully inefficient process that unfolds across decades:

"Whenever there's a modernization effort, the first thing that happens is a thousand-page documentation is written. Already tens of millions of dollars are spent on just writing the documentation—no software built yet, nothing shipped, nothing works yet."

"Then over the next 10 years, for hundreds of millions of dollars, software is being written from scratch for that particular problem area against those requirements. Then 10 years later, all that is magically considered working and finished and is being rolled out."

The inevitable result is systems that are obsolete on arrival:

"Obviously by that time, it's already out of date and antiquated because the state of technology has changed a lot over those 10 years. And then it's somewhat maintained for the next 20 years. But we all know this is not how software is built given how fast it's changing, how fast it's moving."

Timestamp: [12:38-13:57]

Philip identifies the third critical issue in aviation software: an inability to attract top engineering talent to work on these systems due to the rigid, outdated development approach.

"The companies that historically participated in this space can no longer attract the very best software engineers. The very best software engineers do not want to work in that ecosystem and with those structures."

He explains that modern software engineers have fundamentally different expectations about their work:

"They want to build rapidly. They want to build close to the user. They don't want to be handed a list of like 10,000 requirements and then just write code against that."

This talent gap, combined with the other philosophical issues, creates a compounding problem:

"The combination of what all these things meant is you are basically in a setup that does not produce the software that should be produced. And then if you wrap all of that into an acquisition framework that is incentivizing those philosophies, you've got a really big problem at hand. And that is kind of where we are right now."

General Kosinski validates this assessment, noting that the Department of Defense faces identical challenges:

"When I think about the Department of Defense, the way you describe that ecosystem and our challenges is exactly the same, especially in the logistics business within each service—the Army, Marine Corps, Air Force."

Timestamp: [13:57-15:28]

General Kosinski emphasizes the critical need for speed in addressing software modernization across government systems, with no room for delays.

"There's just no time to wait. I mean, you have to move fast, and even moving fast it still takes some time. But if you don't have that sense of urgency, we're not going to accomplish what we need to do."

Philip believes the current political climate offers a unique opportunity for progress:

"I think things will only change if the momentum kind of stays what it is right now, if there's a real urgency for change. I think President Trump, Secretary Duffy kind of set the direction and the mandate."

He notes that modernizing air traffic systems has strong bipartisan support:

"I think the next step is for Congress to fund the modernization efforts at the FAA. I would argue there in many ways it's one of those areas where there's strong bipartisan support for this. It's very hard to argue why not to modernize air traffic control systems and why the US should not have the very best software in that field."

However, Philip cautions that funding alone isn't enough—the implementation approach is equally critical:

"At the same time it's important that the guidelines are put in place on how to spend that money and how to not repeat the same mistakes from the past."

Timestamp: [15:28-17:22]

Philip advocates for using existing commercial software rather than building government systems from scratch, highlighting how ASI has successfully implemented this approach.

"We don't need to spend 10 years on custom development if we can actually purchase software that already works in the private sector, that is already commercially deployed, that we can literally just purchase and use as is, maybe make few modifications."

He explains the multiple benefits of this approach:

"That is a lot more efficient, that allows for much faster modernization, and it's also the safest because it's already proven."

Philip provides concrete examples of where this approach makes sense:

"When it comes to some of the modernization efforts that the FAA will pursue around air traffic management, a lot of that software that is needed, a lot of the capabilities, we already have commercially deployed with the airlines. In many ways, a lot of the airlines are advocating they would love the FAA to use this type of software."

He draws parallels to ASI's work with the US Air Force:

"The reason why we were able to deploy within months and have seen our software being used in live operations was simply because it already worked in the commercial sector. It was already deployed there in kind of 24/7, 365 days a year type of fashion."

Timestamp: [17:22-18:56]

Philip champions the concept of "dual-use" technology—solutions that work across both commercial and government sectors—particularly for systems like air traffic control where public and private entities must collaborate.

"There are certain areas where dual use is a good idea, and there are certain areas where dual use is not a good idea. But when it comes to some of these industries where the private sector and the public sector have to collaborate very closely together, dual use is a phenomenally good idea."

He explains that the benefits extend beyond mere efficiency:

"Not just because it's more efficient, but it also enables more collaboration. And when it comes to the national airspace system, it's a system that is managed by the government but it's used by the private sector, meaning the airlines."

Building on this point, the host notes:

"At the risk of really bringing a Silicon Valley term to the table, like there's a network effect here, right?"

Philip enthusiastically agrees:

"100%. You want everybody singing to the same tune, and if you have a platform where everyone has access to the same data, then everything can be more efficient."

This perspective highlights how shared technological platforms can create value beyond the sum of their parts when used across sectors.

Timestamp: [18:56-19:35]

• Modern air traffic controllers face a generational mismatch, having grown up with advanced technology but being trained on outdated legacy systems
• Aviation software modernization is hindered by three philosophical problems: coupling software with hardware, treating software like hardware development, and failing to attract top engineering talent
• The traditional development approach involves spending millions on documentation before writing any code, resulting in systems that are obsolete before deployment
• Contemporary software engineers avoid working in environments with rigid requirements and slow development cycles
• Both aviation and defense logistics face identical software challenges across all service branches
• There's an urgent need to modernize critical infrastructure software, with potential for bipartisan political support
• Using proven commercial software allows for faster, safer deployment than building custom government solutions from scratch
• Dual-use technology creates powerful network effects when the same systems are used across public and private sectors
• The national airspace system exemplifies where public-private technology collaboration is essential

Timestamp: [10:14-19:35]

Companies:

• ASI (Air Space Intelligence) - Philip's company that has successfully deployed software with the US Air Force
• IBM - Referenced for their "green screens" that older air traffic controllers grew up using
• Google - Mentioned for Google Maps, what younger controllers use in their daily lives
• Snapchat - Mentioned as technology that younger generation of controllers are familiar with
• Apple - Referenced via "iPad" as technology the younger generation is comfortable with

People:

• President Trump - Mentioned as setting direction for modernization efforts
• Secretary Duffy - Mentioned alongside President Trump for setting modernization mandate

Organizations:

• FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) - Discussed regarding their modernization needs and historical resource constraints
• US Air Force - Mentioned as having worked with ASI to rapidly deploy commercial software
• Department of Defense - General Kosinski discusses facing the same software challenges as civil aviation
• Army, Marine Corps, Air Force - Mentioned as having legacy systems within their logistics operations
• Congress - Identified as needing to fund FAA modernization efforts

Concepts:

• Dual-use technology - Software that works across both commercial and government sectors
• Network effect - Silicon Valley concept where platforms become more valuable as more users adopt them
• Legacy systems - Outdated software still in use for critical operations
• National airspace system - Infrastructure managed by government but used by private airlines

Timestamp: [10:14-19:35]

General Kosinski highlights the often-overlooked reality that the U.S. military routinely relies on commercial transportation systems for its day-to-day operations.

"Maybe people don't realize, but day-to-day, the US military uses commercial transport, whether it's trucking, rail, air, sea. And then any kind of contingent or disaster type of escalation, we would have to actually use more."

This dependence on commercial infrastructure underscores why the military and civilian transportation sectors need integrated software systems and collaborative approaches.

"It's really the same resources, the same need for that collaboration. When we need to really work well together on the same system and platforms."

This revelation helps explain why the modernization of logistics software is not just a military concern but a national security issue that spans across public and private sectors.

Timestamp: [19:27-19:58]

General Kosinski explains the military concept of "contested logistics" and why it matters not just for defense but for everyday commerce and supply chains.

"Contested logistics, that's actually a military term. From every military term we have to like definitions and doctrine and even secret stuff that we discuss, but just to understand the concept of it..."

He draws a parallel to consumer experiences to make the concept relatable:

"Most of us order things online. I'm sure you may have done that within the last week or if not a day or so. When you order it, you worry about the price, maybe when it might get there, but most people have no concern about where it's built or the supply chain when it gets there."

This lack of awareness extends to leadership in both civilian and military contexts:

"Even the CEOs of some companies or even senior four-star generals may not think about logistics day-to-day because it hasn't been a problem in the past."

The essence of contested logistics is anticipating and managing disruptions:

"The idea of contested logistics is that whether it's weather, whether it's maintenance, whether it's other situations, you're going to have challenges. And how do you understand that, predict and optimize? That's what ASI-type software does."

In military contexts, the concept takes on additional dimensions:

"From the military perspective, contested logistics from adversaries will look for your vulnerabilities, which would be in our supply chain and logistics pieces."

Timestamp: [19:58-21:32]

The speakers reframe logistics from a support function to a critical offensive and defensive capability—a weapon system in its own right.

General Kosinski explains how logistics underpins everything the military does:

"When we in the military move an aircraft carrier or a group of soldiers somewhere, you make that decision, but people don't often think about the whole supply chain, the tail I guess you'd call it—the food supply, munitions, everything else to get them there and get them back."

He emphasizes that even the most advanced weapons are useless without robust logistics:

"No matter what great weapon system you have, if you can't supply and sustain it and move it where you need to, it's not effective. And I really think logistics, and experts do think of it, as a weapon system itself."

Philip frames logistics as a potential competitive advantage or vulnerability:

"It's your competitive advantage if you can leverage it. If you can't and you don't see it, it becomes your greatest weakness and vulnerability. So we want it to be your competitive advantage by providing this capability."

He uses a powerful analogy to illustrate how logistics operates in the background until it fails:

"It's almost like electricity or water. You don't think about it working or not working until you flip the switch and your light doesn't come on, or you turn the faucet and the water doesn't run. So it's really kind of the backbone of everything."

Timestamp: [21:32-22:28]

The speakers reference recent global events that have highlighted the critical importance of logistics systems and their vulnerabilities.

General Kosinski draws parallels between civilian and military logistics disruptions:

"We've seen that day-to-day in the pandemic, when face masks or toilet paper, things like that [were scarce]. But from the military, I saw that with support to Ukraine, where there's just munitions and things we are moving, and just the resources to do that, the supply chain to be able to replenish those."

He emphasizes the need for predictive capabilities during escalations:

"As you start thinking through potential crises and others, as things escalate, you'd want to be able to predict that and to understand that better. But we again, just like oxygen, it's fine and up until you don't have it, and then it becomes a concern."

Philip adds that logistics systems, like air traffic control, operate invisibly until they fail:

"We talked about air traffic control and air operations before—same there, right? You just assume things are working till they don't."

He points out a fundamental problem in how we allocate resources:

"It's very easy to spend money on the fancy weapon system, the autonomous drone, the new high-tech equipment, whatever it is, because it's physical, it's visible. But when it comes to the silent software that runs in the background that enables all of this to work, that allows the most advanced equipment to go where it's needed when it's needed, I think that's sometimes too much a bit of an afterthought."

Timestamp: [22:28-24:04]

The speakers explore why logistics continues to be underappreciated despite recent global supply chain disruptions like the pandemic.

General Kosinski identifies human nature as a key factor:

"I think [it's] human nature of wanting to go back to that status quo. You have all this stress, and you just want to take a deep breath and go back to what seems comfortable."

He explains that our complacency stems from decades without major global conflicts:

"We've been able to be comfortable for the last few decades because we haven't had a global war, fortunately, or that level. And so it takes pressure points like the pandemic to really see where vulnerabilities [are]."

The General also points to the traditional view of logistics as a cost center rather than a strategic asset:

"We've been over the last several decades just accustomed to just-in-time logistics. It's a cost area—you're worried about cost, reducing that. And that's all well and good if there's nothing out there threatening that supply chain. But you realize that just-in-time isn't in time at all if you can't get that part or that supply chain need."

He suggests a fundamental mindset shift is occurring:

"Companies that I talked to and others are realizing this, that really their competitive advantage can be in that resilience and that understanding of the supply chain and logistics piece. Instead of thinking of it as a cost, it should be something that's their competitive advantage, something that provides profit, or for the military, more deterrence and capability."

Timestamp: [24:04-25:55]

Philip explains why logistics represents the perfect case for dual-use technology that serves both military and commercial needs simultaneously.

"I think there are certain domains, certain capabilities where building something specific for one sector is absolutely the right way to go. Think of a new missile or an aircraft carrier—there's not much commercial applicability for that. Logistics is one of those domains where I would argue it's the flagship example where you want to have dual use."

He outlines several key reasons why this approach makes sense in logistics:

"From a defense perspective, a lot of the capacity resides in the private sector, on the commercial side. It goes way beyond the civil reserve fleet. It's the same infrastructure, the same ports."

Philip highlights how adversaries already understand this strategic overlap:

"Our adversaries are actually trying to deploy their software into allied ports. The Chinese are really good at making sure their software runs in ports. They're giving it away for free, and there's a reason why they do that."

From the commercial perspective, he points out why companies should embrace military-grade logistics solutions:

"If you are providing mission-critical infrastructure like transportation, you want to make sure you're using military-grade software because the stakes are just so high."

The ultimate benefit is preparedness for crisis situations:

"You don't want to figure that out when you're in the moment of a crisis. You want to have that done before."

Timestamp: [25:55-28:13]

Philip articulates ASI's strategic vision to create logistics software that bridges commercial and government sectors while enabling critical collaboration.

"That's very much what we're trying to do at ASI. We want to make sure that the very best logistics software, the very best software to operate mission-critical operations, is deployed with the companies that are doing that in the private sector as well as with the government, and then enable these two sectors to collaborate."

He frames this as the most authentic form of dual-use technology:

"In many ways, it's the truest form of dual use because we're not only sharing technology, but we're also enabling collaboration and communication between these two sectors."

Philip extends this vision to international cooperation:

"You want to use similar ideas or similar mental model when it comes to the collaboration between the US and its allies, specifically on military logistics. Contested logistics is always about the integration with our allied partners—how can we tap their infrastructure, how can we use some of the capacity that they have, how can that all be coordinated?"

General Kosinski adds his experience with NATO's evolving approach:

"In my previous job, I was a US rep for the NATO logistics committee. Over the last few years in NATO, one of the changes was there's always been collective defense, but not necessarily collective logistics. Logistics was on the nation to do things. But the realization is that any one nation can't do it alone."

He describes this shift to "collective logistics" as a common-sense evolution that's finally being institutionalized across NATO.

Timestamp: [28:13-30:13]

• The US military relies heavily on commercial transportation infrastructure for daily operations and would need even more during crises
• "Contested logistics" involves anticipating and preparing for disruptions in supply chains, whether from adversaries, weather, or maintenance issues
• Logistics should be viewed as a weapon system itself—a competitive advantage when leveraged properly or a critical vulnerability when neglected
• Recent events like the pandemic and Ukraine support operations have demonstrated the consequences of logistics failures
• There's a tendency to invest in visible hardware (drones, weapons) while neglecting the "silent software" that enables everything to function
• Human nature drives us to return to comfortable "business as usual" after crises, overlooking systemic vulnerabilities
• Traditional "just-in-time" logistics optimizes for cost but creates significant risks when supply chains are disrupted
• Logistics represents the ideal domain for dual-use technology that serves both military and commercial sectors
• China strategically deploys its logistics software in foreign ports, recognizing the strategic value of controlling these systems
• NATO has evolved from "collective defense" to "collective logistics," acknowledging that no single nation can manage modern logistics challenges alone

Timestamp: [19:27-30:13]

Companies:

• ASI (Air Space Intelligence) - Company developing dual-use logistics software for both commercial and defense sectors
• Chinese companies - Referenced for giving away port management software for free to gain strategic advantage

People:

• Philip Buckendorf - CEO of ASI, advocating for dual-use logistics technology
• General Kosinski - Former U.S. representative to the NATO logistics committee, ASI's Chief Strategy Officer

Organizations:

• NATO - Mentioned regarding their shift from "collective defense" to "collective logistics"
• NATO logistics committee - Where General Kosinski served as U.S. representative
• US military - Discussed as a major user of commercial transportation infrastructure
• Department of Defense (DoD) - Referenced regarding logistics modernization needs

Concepts:

• Contested logistics - Military term for anticipating and managing disruptions in supply chains
• Dual-use technology - Solutions that serve both commercial and military purposes
• Just-in-time logistics - Cost-efficient approach that reduces inventory but creates vulnerabilities
• Collective logistics - NATO's evolution toward coordinated multinational logistics efforts
• Civil reserve fleet - Mentioned regarding commercial transportation capacity available for military use

Events:

• COVID-19 pandemic - Referenced for exposing supply chain vulnerabilities (toilet paper, face masks)
• Ukraine support operations - Mentioned as revealing military logistics challenges with munitions movement

Timestamp: [19:27-30:13]

Philip outlines a vision for the next generation of operational software, moving beyond mere dashboards to predictive systems that can anticipate challenges before they occur.

"I think the last 5-10 years, a lot of the modernization that happened was just putting up new dashboards that are running in these operation centers on bigger TVs, but we haven't really deployed software to the warfighter, to the operator."

He cites David Yulovich's observation that the world is getting "a lot more spicy," necessitating a fundamental shift in our software approach:

"When the world is stable, you can operate off of near real-time displays—that means the human operator is seeing problems as they happen and then they react to it. But that's not necessarily the world we're living in. The world is a lot more uncertain now."

This uncertainty demands a new generation of software that provides foresight rather than just real-time awareness:

"We need to have software that is showing the operator what is about to happen in the operating domain, how they need to adjust. Anticipation, in many ways, is a new high ground when it comes to software."

Timestamp: [30:13-31:22]

Philip describes the historical evolution of operational software, positioning current innovations as the fourth major revolution in computing.

"We have seen three evolution steps. The first evolution was we had compute. So in the 1970s, 1980s, we had workstations—they were not connected. You input some data and there's some optimization process or some form of processing that is happening, and then you have an output."

The second stage introduced connectivity:

"The next evolution was when all those workstations became connected—the internet. So now a lot more data became online."

This was followed by the third stage, which expanded data collection:

"Next step from there was, 'Oh great, now we can extend that to the internet of things.' A lot more sensors became online, so the big challenge was, 'How do we fuse all that data? How do we make sure we have a great common operating picture?' And I think that was very much the focus over the last 15 years or so."

Now, we're entering the fourth revolutionary stage:

"I think now we're at the very beginning of a new revolution, which is prediction machines. How do we actually build interfaces that are predicting what is about to happen? What is the state of the operating domain, what is the state of our supply chain, what is the state of the assets we're operating—not just right now but over the next hours, over the next days, over the next weeks."

"And how can we forward-simulate that? That is an enormous advantage for an organization if you have that capability."

Timestamp: [31:22-32:55]

Philip outlines three fundamental priorities for modernizing critical operational systems, emphasizing the need for cross-sector collaboration and proactive investment.

The first priority is developing and widely deploying predictive software:

"From an ASI perspective, we pioneered some of that work very specifically in the air domain, but we need to do that more broadly now across all domains, across both sectors, private and public."

The second priority focuses on facilitating collaboration between government and industry:

"We need to enable much tighter collaboration between the two sectors. The key issue is going to be how do we get more capacity ASAP. Yes, we can think about how do we build more ships and all of that, and there are clear needs for that, but all those things take time."

"At the same time, there is already a lot of capacity within the Western hemisphere, between the US and its partners and allies, as well as between the private and the public sector. How do we enable collaboration, communication to make sure that capacity can be used and can be used effectively or efficiently?"

The third priority is ensuring sustained attention and investment:

"It's important that these sectors are not just an afterthought. How do we make sure that these sectors get the funding and the care and the attention not just when things fall apart—because that means it's too late—but how do we make sure we invest in these sectors proactively before things fall apart?"

Timestamp: [32:55-34:27]

General Kosinski explains how AI and decision support tools can dramatically accelerate the development of logistics expertise that traditionally takes decades to build.

"I had a big challenge in the Joint Staff as a director for logistics in creating joint logisticians. In the military term, 'joint' means you've got the Army, Air Force, Navy, Marines, and each of those have perspectives. If Air Force wants to move something, they think about doing it by air; Navy by sea; Army by ground."

He describes how traditional expertise development creates bottlenecks:

"You first have to be an expert in that kind of logistics—the air logistics. That takes several years, not a decade. And then opportunities to become a joint logistics expert, which means you have to understand all of those, that takes a lot of time, and we're challenged to do that."

AI decision support tools offer a breakthrough solution:

"When you have AI decision support tools that can enable individuals to make decisions, instead of taking 20 years to train someone to do this, you have software that you can be trained on and still learn, but can give you the option of multi-modal—'send it by ship or air'—or what the best decision is."

This technological approach doesn't replace training but transforms it:

"That's really an accelerator for what we need to do because, not that we still shouldn't train and try to achieve that, but in today's technology, we should be leveraging that technology as opposed to struggling to try to provide this one person that can kind of do everything. And if that person's not there, then you can't succeed."

Timestamp: [34:27-35:48]

When asked how things might look in a decade if logistics modernization efforts succeed, Philip highlights two key outcomes: capacity optimization and resilience in an uncertain world.

"One is we will be able to do a lot more with the capacity that we have available. Two is we will be able to harden our logistic networks in an uncertain world or uncertain state of the world."

He underscores that geopolitical instability is likely to persist:

"No matter how some of these crises are going to pan out, I think the probability is very high that the next few decades are going to be a bit more dynamic and uncertain than the last two decades were."

This uncertainty will create ongoing logistics challenges:

"Every form of supply chain, any piece of mission-critical infrastructure, will in one form or shape be disrupted. And how do we have software that allows us to very quickly reroute stuff so that the impact of that uncertainty doesn't impact the warfighter, doesn't impact the civilian infrastructure?"

Philip notes that disruption will come from multiple sources:

"The uncertainty we will have, obviously from geopolitical tensions, but equally from sanctions, also from a climate perspective. Increasingly more volatile weather has a huge implication for the national aerospace system and travel."

The goal is predictive adaptation:

"How can we have logistic systems that are able to anticipate these challenges and then balance things out when needed because you have that predictive capability?"

Timestamp: [35:48-38:06]

General Kosinski explains how advanced logistics capabilities directly contribute to national security by preventing conflicts before they begin.

"I think no one really wants—no one I know wants to fight a war. But we want to be able to prevent that."

He connects this deterrence directly to logistics capabilities:

"No matter what ships and aircraft and high-tech weapons you have, if you can't sustain them, you can't move them where they need to be, the adversary knows that. Or even if you can move them where they need to be but you can't keep them sustained to be able to for any given amount of time, that doesn't provide that deterrence."

The General notes this represents a shift in thinking for the nation:

"That's something fundamental that we've, I think, maybe not had to think about as a nation for many decades."

He expresses optimism about the future if these challenges are addressed:

"Hopefully you fast forward 10 years from now, I can't tell you everything that will happen that time, but we will still be able to deter and make sure that's a free and open world because of that."

The stakes are high for service members if these issues aren't addressed:

"If we don't have that capability, it makes anything we do from the national security perspective that much harder. And I don't want it to be that much harder for our military men and women out there."

Timestamp: [38:06-39:05]

General Kosinski warns about the long-term strategic approach that adversaries are taking to exploit U.S. logistics vulnerabilities, requiring an urgent American response.

"There should be a sense of urgency because there's no time. There's a book out there called 'The Hundred-Year Marathon' by Michael Pillsbury. The premise of the book is that adversaries like China have been looking at our vulnerabilities and supply chains for quite some time."

He uses a racing metaphor to illustrate the challenge:

"In a marathon, even if Philip's a much faster runner, but if I start running today and he doesn't start till tomorrow, I probably will win. And this is where the sense of urgency to catch up with our risks [comes in]."

The vulnerabilities are widespread and already being probed:

"Our risks lie in our ports, risks lie within our supply chain. You'll see news releases about hacking into water supply systems in places in Texas, and you wonder why is that all happening."

He references ancient strategic wisdom:

"If you look at Sun Tzu, kind of ancient strategy, the best type of war you fight is one that you don't have to fight at all."

The General emphasizes how the U.S. strategic position has fundamentally changed:

"As a nation, we have been able to power project and do things from everywhere around the world, and it's been great for the United States to do that. We have an amazing capability. But in this age of contested logistics with hypersonic missiles and cyber and space threats, our ability not just to operate abroad, but just to be able to leave our own ports and to be able to move rail and everything uncontested, no longer exists. It probably hasn't existed for a few years or more."

Timestamp: [39:05-40:34]

Philip highlights how America's geographic advantages paradoxically create logistics challenges for global power projection that adversaries seek to exploit.

"In many ways, the greatest asset for the US is you've got a massive ocean to the west, you've got a massive ocean to the east. It's actually very, very hard for any adversary to attack the US on its homeland given you have the oceans."

This geographic isolation creates a specific challenge for power projection:

"At the same time, from a global power projection [perspective], we need to be able to overcome these vast distances over the oceans, and that requires logistics."

He explains how adversaries are targeting this vulnerability:

"Our adversaries know that, and their strategies are very much like, 'How do we target key logistic infrastructure—no matter if it's in the homeland or with allies and partners—to make sure the US is limited in its capability to make sure the equipment can go where it's needed when it's needed?'"

Addressing this challenge requires a comprehensive approach:

"That requires software as much as physical infrastructure to allow that we maintain the ability to project power globally."

Timestamp: [40:34-41:42]

General Kosinski and Philip discuss recent incidents that demonstrate the fragility of global logistics systems and how adversaries could exploit similar vulnerabilities.

General Kosinski highlights two significant events:

"Some tangible examples because things have already happened: you look back to the Colonial Pipeline. For those here in the East Coast, [they] couldn't get gas for quite some time. You look at the Suez Canal back in 2021—you had a ship that was trying to parallel park, got stuck there for six days. Just the billions of dollars of trade that were affected by that."

He notes these weren't necessarily malicious incidents but reveal systemic vulnerabilities:

"Those are things that had different reasons—not particularly nefarious actions—but you could just imagine those vulnerabilities that we have. And if we're at some crisis, you're going to have to be able to overcome that. That's why this predictive logistics capability, AI-enabled, is a way that we would have to be able to look and think and come up with solutions."

Philip adds the importance of understanding vulnerabilities at every point in the system:

"How do we understand the threat profile for every single node in the system? How do we understand the threats that might impact key infrastructure? We see a lot how underwater sea cables are being attacked. Every key node in the system is a vulnerability."

He emphasizes the need for both detection and adaptation:

"How do we make sure we have the technology in place to detect any threats, no matter in what form or shape they're coming? And then how do we quickly counter that by relying on other nodes more than maybe particular nodes that are impacted in their capacity and efficiency?"

Timestamp: [41:42-43:15]

• Modern software for critical operations must evolve beyond reactive dashboards to predictive systems that anticipate challenges before they occur
• We're entering the fourth major evolution of software: first came standalone computing, then internet connectivity, then IoT sensors, and now predictive systems
• Forward-simulating future states of logistics networks provides enormous competitive advantages for organizations
• Military logistics expertise traditionally takes decades to develop, but AI decision support can dramatically accelerate training and capabilities
• Future logistics systems must optimize existing capacity and harden networks against disruptions in an increasingly uncertain world
• Advanced logistics capabilities directly contribute to deterrence by ensuring forces can be deployed and sustained wherever needed
• Adversaries like China have been strategically targeting U.S. supply chain vulnerabilities for years as part of a "hundred-year marathon"
• America's oceanic buffers provide homeland security but create power projection challenges that adversaries seek to exploit
• Recent incidents like the Colonial Pipeline hack and Suez Canal blockage demonstrate the fragility of global logistics systems
• Understanding the threat profile for every node in logistics networks is essential for building resilience against attacks

Timestamp: [30:13-43:15]

Companies:

• ASI (Air Space Intelligence) - Philip's company pioneering predictive software for critical operations
• Colonial Pipeline - Referenced as suffering a significant cyberattack that disrupted fuel supplies on the East Coast

People:

• Philip Buckendorf - CEO of ASI, discussing software evolution and logistics modernization
• General Kosinski - Former director for logistics at the Joint Staff, discussing military logistics challenges
• David Yulovich - Mentioned for his observation that the world is getting "a lot more spicy" (more uncertain)
• Michael Pillsbury - Author of "The Hundred-Year Marathon" about China's long-term strategic approach
• Sun Tzu - Ancient Chinese military strategist referenced for the concept that the best war is one you don't have to fight

Organizations:

• Joint Staff - Where General Kosinski served as director for logistics
• Army, Air Force, Navy, Marines - Military branches mentioned regarding their different logistics perspectives

Concepts:

• Prediction machines - Philip's term for the next evolution in software focused on anticipating future states
• Joint logisticians - Military experts who understand multi-modal transportation across all service branches
• Contested logistics - The concept of operating supply chains under threat of disruption by adversaries
• The Hundred-Year Marathon - Book about China's long-term strategy to supplant American power
• Power projection - The ability to deploy military forces globally, requiring robust logistics

Events:

• Colonial Pipeline cyberattack - 2021 incident that disrupted fuel supplies on the U.S. East Coast
• Suez Canal blockage - 2021 incident where the container ship Ever Given blocked the canal for six days

Timestamp: [30:13-43:15]